Page 12 - NorthAmOil Week 37

NorthAmOil COMMENTARY NorthAmOil

it to surge by a third over the next three decades, energy mix rising from 20% in 2018 to 34% for
from 3.93 trillion cubic metres last year, accord- business-as-usual, 45% for rapid and over 50%
ing to BP’s own estimates. Under the rapid for net zero.
scenario, demand will peak in the mid-2030s Hydrogen and bioenergy are pitched as
but will still be around the same level in 2050 another way of decarbonising energy. Hydrogen
as in 2018. But according to the net-zero case, will increase its share to 16% under the net zero
demand will peak as soon as the mid-2020s and and 7% under the rapid case, whereas bioenergy
drop by a third by 2050. will grow to 10% of primary energy in the net
Gas has two main roles in the energy tran- zero case and 7% in the rapid one.
sition, BP said. First, it can displace coal in
fast-growing, developing economies where Commitments
renewables cannot be deployed fast enough; With new CEO Bernard Looney at the helm, BP has embraced
second, it can be combined with carbon, capture BP has embraced the energy transition, more so
and storage (CCS) to produce near zero-carbon than any of the world’s other leading oil and gas the energy
energy. The rapid and net-zero scenarios see gas companies. This was demonstrated in BP’s net- transition, more
combined with CCS accounting between 8 and zero strategy unveiled last month.
10% of primary energy in three decades’ time. The strategy called for a 40% reduction in the so than any of
company’s oil and gas production over the next
Clean tech decade, and a similar scaling back of its refining the world’s other
Unsurprisingly, BP sees renewables on the fast- operations. It also aims to bolster annual invest-
est-growing trajectory, led by rising wind and ments in clean energy tenfold by 2030. leading oil and
solar capacity. The share of renewables in final “The world is on an unsustainable path: gas companies.
energy consumption is seen expanding from a the scenarios show that achieving a rapid and
little over 20% in 2018 to 34% in the business-as- sustained fall in carbon emissions is likely to
usual case, 45% in the rapid case and over 50% require a series of policy measures, led by a
in the net zero case. significant increase in carbon prices,” BP con-
Growth will be driven by falling costs, which cluded. “These policies may need to be further
are expected to be 30% and 65% lower for wind reinforced by shifts in societal behaviours and
and solar respectively by 2050 under the rapid preferences.”
scenario, and by 35% and 70% respectively in the Delaying either policies or societal shifts
net-zero scenario. will only make the challenge greater and add
Electrification will also increase in all three to the economic cost and disruption, the com-
scenarios, with the share of electricity in the final pany warned.™

P12 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 37 17•September•2020