Page 14 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

Tajikistan that the Central Asian nation has taken “decisive steps” to
protect public health and economic activity.

“Growth in 2022 is projected at 5.5 percent as the impact of pent-up
demand (reflecting a rebound in remittances) and base effects fade.
Over the medium term, growth is projected to settle at 4 percent with
inflation declining to the NBT [central bank] target range. An
uncontrolled [coronavirus] outbreak, potentially related to the
deteriorating COVID situation in major trading partners, and new
lockdowns could undercut the recovery. Regional security and
geopolitical tensions could also jeopardize economic prospects,” the
IMF said.

2.1.2 External environment

Tajikistan’s main exports are made up of gold, labour and electricity.

The analytical arm of Russian investment bank VTB Capital
commented in a note in December: “We believe it is helpful to pay
particular attention to the exports of gold, electricity and labour
services. The first is a monopoly of the [central bank]; the proceeds of
the second are earmarked by the state to settle energy-related debts;
and the third is fully ‘intercepted’ by the authorities via the legislation
that it is mandatory to convert all RUB coming into the country into
TJS. All three, in other words, are not merely included in the current
account receipts in an accounting sense, but generate the FX flows to
which the government has direct recourse. In all these components, we
either see already, or expect to see soon, positive trends.”

Tajikistan is one of the world’s most remittance-dependent nations and
as such has benefitted from the recovery in remittances sent by Tajik
migrants working in Russia.

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