Page 12 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

2.1.4 Industrial production

Kyrgyz industrial production rose by 51% y/y in November partly thanks
to the gradual easing of pandemic-related restrictions throughout 2021.
Part of this gain may have been due to gold production in the first half
of 2021, which partly rose as, globally, investors flocked to safer assets,
such as gold, due to persistent market anxiety over COVID-19 impacts
and other financial market worries.

2.2 Macroeconomy - Turkmenistan

2.1.1 GDP growth

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
anticipates that Turkmenistan’s real GDP growth for 2021 will amount to
6.3% due to substantial export growth. The development bank next
sees a deceleration of growth to 5.5% in 2022 due to various structural
challenges, such as limited depth in the financial sector, the poor quality
of the Turkmen business environment and restrictions on private sector
operations in the country.

For several years, Turkmenistan has reported its annual growth as
around 6%. That’s despite evidence that the country has been mired in
an economic crisis since 2016. That crisis will have deepened with the
pandemic. Official data provided on macroeconomic indicators in the
country is notoriously unreliable.

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