Page 10 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

Khodaafarin dam on the Iranian border. Companies from all over the
world, but especially the United Kingdom, Israel and Turkey, are
expected to be active in the rebuilding process of Karabakh.

Overall, 2021 was pretty silent on the political scene in Azerbaijan. The
few opposition voices were silenced - even if it was not by force - by the
victory in Karabakh a year ago. The traditional opposition had focussed
their criticism of the Aliyevs (Ilham Aliyev and his father Heydar Aliyev)
over the way they had allowed Karabakh to be under Armenian control.
The Karabakh victory means Aliyev now enjoys genuine support from
the large masses of the population like he never did before.

2.0 Macroeconomic

2.1 Macroeconomy - Kyrgyzstan

2.1.1 GDP growth

The Kyrgyz economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2021 and 5.0% in
2022, following an 8.6% contraction in 2020, on the back of a strong
recovery in remittance inflows from Russia along with a resumption of
tourism activities and gold exports. The country faces significant
downside risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to
affect the economy in 2022. One downside risk emanates from negative
investor sentiment that has arisen from the seizure of Kumtor gold mine
from Canada’s Centerra Gold by the Kyrgyz authorities.

The IMF sees Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growing by 2.1% in 2021 (down from
the 6% seen in the IMF's April update) and 5.6% in 2022 (4.6% stated
in the April update).

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