Page 13 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

The IMF projects Turkmenistan’s GDP will expand by 4.5% in 2021 and
by 3.9% in 2022, following 0.8% growth in 2020.

2.1.2 External environment
Turkmenistan’s 2021 current account balance is expected to deliver a
surplus of 0.6% (down from 0.8%) of GDP, according to the IMF.

2.1.2 Inflation and monetary policy

Turkmenistan’s unofficial level of inflation is widely seen as well into the
double digits. The shortages of basic food and other goods endured by
the country in 2021 were pronounced.

The IMF sees Turkmen consumer price inflation as this year heading
for 12.5% (up from 8%) in 2021.

2.1.4 Industrial production

N/A

2.3 Macroeconomy - Tajikistan

2.1.1 GDP growth

According to the EBRD’s latest forecast, Tajikistan’s economy is
projected to grow by 6.5% in 2021 and 6.2% in 2022. Growth will be
supported by a recovery in remittances from Russia. That will positively
affect private consumption. Continued investment in key infrastructure
projects, including the massive Roghun hydropower plant, will also
support growth.

“In the longer term, re-establishing trade and transport connections
with Afghanistan will be important for the Tajik economy, particularly
given Tajikistan’s plans to increase electricity exports following the
completion of the Roghun hydropower plant and the CASA-1000
electricity transmission lines,” the EBRD said.

The IMF said in a statement released at the conclusion of a mission to
the country undertaken as part of its 2021 Article IV consultation with

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