Page 8 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

increasingly hardline approach, which for the moment continues to
work, given that even Saakashvili’s return could not boost UNM past
GD in yet another vote.

Other political parties, always marginal, have been even further pushed
to the sidelines as the contest between UNM and GD somehow
dominates even more of the local political arena. With no national vote
scheduled for another three years, it seems that GD might finally have a
chance to settle the political environment somewhat. But this is
Georgia, a country where ever deeper political crisis is always just
around the corner, so an exit from turmoil should not be expected.

1.5 Politics - Armenia

Armenia exits 2021 having survived the most difficult political crisis of
its independent existence. The country limped into the year reeling from
its devastating defeat in 2020’s Second Karabakh War, which saw
Azerbaijan recapture swathes of territory in and around the disputed
region of Nagorno-Karabakh in a 44-day conflict that killed over 4,000
Armenians. New bodies of dead Armenian servicemen are still being
discovered in the area weekly.

The military catastrophe struck the popularity of Prime Minister Nikol
Pashinyan’s government like nothing before it. Carried into power in the
wake of 2018’s Velvet Revolution, which toppled the autocratic rule of
his predecessor Serzh Sargsyan, Pashinyan had enjoyed sky-high
approval ratings as his battle against corruption engendered a steady
improvement in the lives of average Armenians. Following the war,
however, opposition-organized street protests took place daily, albeit
small ones. More turmoil occurred on February 25, when leading
Armenian generals called for Pashinyan’s resignation in an apparent
abortive military coup. A few weeks later, Pashinyan called a snap
election, held on June 20.

In the months that followed, political tensions in the country
skyrocketed. The main opposition bloc that emerged was the Armenia
Alliance (Hayastan Dashinq) of Robert Kocharyan, Armenia’s second
president (1998-2008) and the chief political rival of Pashinyan, who
had unsuccessfully pursued several court cases against him. As
Kocharyan gathered momentum and the day of the vote itself
approached, the outcome was truly unknown and fears of post-election
violence and instability were rife.

8 Small Stans & South Caucasus Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com