Page 6 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

No major political events can be anticipated with any confidence when it
comes to secretive, tightly controlled Turkmenistan, ruled by “personality cult”
autocrat Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. However, many observers remain alert
to the rapidly deteriorating quality of life of ordinary Turkmens. As things stand,
people queue in long overnight lines to buy basic food and goods. Some fear
that if the situation does not significantly improve, the country might reach the
brink of collapse, though currently such fears are unwarranted.

Most of the anti-regime activism has been gathering steam in Turkey, where
many Turkmen migrants seek work in order to send remittances to their
families back home. The Turkish authorities appear to have been cracking
down on Turkmen activists on behalf of the Turkmen government.

Turkmenistan continues to claim that it is “coronavirus-free” despite countless
independent reports describing the widespread presence of the virus across all
regions.

1.3 Politics - Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s main political concerns for the upcoming year will stem from
neighbouring Afghanistan, again under Taliban rule following the withdrawal of
US and allied forces. Tajikistan is among the more outspoken nations in not
recognising the Taliban government as legitimate. This has to do with the
ethnic make-up of the Taliban, largely Pashtun. Pashtuns account for the
biggest ethnicity in Afghanistan, at around 40% of the total population. Next
largest are ethnic-Tajiks, who speak a form of Persian, at around 30%. The
Tajik government backs the ethnic-Tajik resistance with the demand, also
made by Iran, that Afghanistan’s government should be inclusive of all
ethnicities.

The situation has already led to tensions with the Taliban. Both sides have
amassed troops at the border, but Afghanistan does not appear to have any
intention of openly attacking Tajikistan. Russia has held multiple military drills
in Tajikistan, where it has a military base, since last summer. It has also been
upgrading and expanding its forces at the base, the biggest Russian armed
forces base outside of Russia.

Russia’s main concern, however, is that “backyard country” Tajikistan may end
up being infiltrated by militants and terrorists from other extremist groups, such
as the so-called Islamic State, who could cross the border disguised as
refugees.

1.4 Politics - Georgia

Georgian politics in 2021 was mostly a question of bad to worse, as a

6 Small Stans & South Caucasus Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com