Page 5 - Small Stans and Causcasus Outlook 2022

and international trade transit infrastructure some of the important fields
in Azerbaijan—remains an absolute must for Baku this year as it is
every year to avoid leaving the country exposed to the vicissitudes of
the global hydrocarbon markets. Should the peace with Armenia hold,
leading to a consequent economic opening up across the region, the
Azerbaijanis, like the Armenians, would be in line for a great economic
shot in the arm. Azerbaijan remains ambitious for a trade corridor link
with Turkey via Armenian territory. Such are the tensions and hostilities,
at times the idea seems fanciful, but if a win-win settlement with
Armenia could be found, there’s no reason why the corridor couldn’t be
part of the reality. Not that you should hold your breath.

1.0 Political outlook

1.1 Politics - Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan has seen a consolidation of power in the hands of populist
Sadyr Japarov, whose swift rise to president came after he was busted
from prison by protesters infuriated by the results of the country’s late
2020 parliamentary election.

The poll was rescheduled for late 2021. This time round the winning
candidates were mainly backers of the Japarov administration. Issues
were raised over the vote count, but the tensions only simmered. They
did not boil over into the type of full-on countrywide protests seen in
2020. Overall, the Kyrgyz population appears to be fatigued by the lack
of effectiveness secured by political action following three government
overthrows - in 2005, 2010 and 2020.

With the coronavirus pandemic taking a toll on the lives of ordinary
Kyrgyz citizens, most Kyrgyz likely find themselves in survival mode
with politics taking on a secondary space in their minds.

It is likely that Japarov will continue to consolidate his position in 2022.

1.2 Politics - Turkmenistan

5 Small Stans & South Caucasus Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com