Page 13 - FSUOGM Week 15 2022

FSUOGM COMMENTARY FSUOGM

with Albania in third place with 84% and Aus- leave a total of 51 bcm of Russian gas imports to
tria, Sweden, Denmark, Portugal and Latvia all cover, which the think-tanks believe can be met
now producing more than half their power from by existing resources.
renewables. “Net imports of fossil gas are projected to
The Ukraine war has accelerated the EU’s reduce by 32 bcm from 2020 levels by 2025 with
plans to wean Europe of Russian gas and set the full implementation of the “Fit for 55” policy
a new ambitious target of being gas free by package (MIX scenario). We find that this can be
2025 without resorting to restarting coal-fired further decreased by 69 bcm through clean and
power stations or using more gas imports from efficiency solutions,” Ember said in its report.
other suppliers, think-tanks Ember, E3G, Bel- Renewable energy sources, predominantly
lona and RAP said at a briefing. They propose wind and solar, are critical to weaning the EU off
accelerating the EU’s “Fit for 55” emission reduc- Russian gas and fossil fuels, according to Ember.
tion plans and investing into more energy effi- The current Fit for 55 target for wind and solar
ciency, heat pumps and similar technology, as capacity by 2025 is 533 GW (229 GW above 2020
well as accelerating plans for more investment levels).
into solar and wind. “We have identified that this can be increased
The proposals follow on from a statement by by 158 GW to 691 GW by 2025. This equates to
the EU that it would reduce demand for Russian 31 bcm of reduced fossil gas demand, 20% of
gas by two thirds before the end of 2022. The new Russian imports. Accelerated solar deployment
briefing described how it could call a total halt is responsible for this substantial gain. Solar
to gas imports by 2025, if there was an “urgent Power Europe has stated that permitting is key
EU-wide commitment” to making the necessary to enabling the necessary huge uptick in solar
changes. The think-tanks, following the lead of installations,” Ember said. “Our scenario also
the IEA earlier in March, drafted a 10-point plan assumes wind capacity hits the target set out in
to end imports of Russian gas by 2025. the “Fit for 55” proposal; however, deployment
If the EU follows through on its plan to reduce is currently lagging, and this must be addressed
Russian gas demand by two thirds, that would by the EU as a matter of urgency.” ™
PIPELINES & TRANSPORT

Russian fuel oil exports

slump in March

RUSSIA RUSSIAN fuel oil exports slumped in March, the US dropped to 5,900 tpd from 26,1000 tpd,
trading data reported by ports shows, as export- while shipments to north-west Europe remained
Sanctions and the ers struggled to complete spot sales because of stable at about 24,000 tpd.
general political difficulties caused by sanctions and broader ten- Deliveries from Baltic ports to the Medi-
situation have made sions with the West. terranean region were up, however, because of
it harder for Russian Fuel oil supplies from Russian ports aver- increases in supply to Gibraltar and Egypt.
exporters to find a aged 98,000 tonnes per day in March 1-28, Shipments from Russia’s southern ports
market. compared with 154,000 tpd in March. The halved in March 1-28 to 32,400 tpd, while
bulk of volumes that were exported were under exports from Far Eastern ports increased to
long-term contracts. In addition to sanctions, 6,200 tpd from 3,700 tpd. The main markets for
many companies are contending with price these eastbound deliveries were Brunei, China,
risks in their existing contracts, because of the Malaysia and Singapore.
added risks with handling Russian cargoes at Russia is usually one of the world’s largest fuel
present. In the Black Sea, shippers are having oil exporters, because of the relative simplicity of
to pay an insurance premium because of this its refineries. The government has made succes-
added risk. sive efforts to modernise the country's refining
Shipments of fuel oil from Russia’s industry, however, so that plants produce more
north-western ports fell to 56,300 tpd in March higher-value light products such as gasoline and
1-28, versus 79,400 tpd in February. Deliveries to diesel, at the expense of fuel oil. ™

Week 15 15•April•2022 www. NEWSBASE .com P13