Page 22 - Mumme Booklet

DRAFT

DOUG AND MARIE MUMME

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS – GOAL COVERAGE FOR

RETIREMENT

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The graph(s) below illustrate the goal coverage percentage for each trial. The results are generated by
varying inflation and return rates in each year of each trial, then determining if the available resources are
adequate to cover the need. The Goal Coverage percentage equals the ability to cover needs divided by the
need.

100%
90% For this probability analysis, 500 trials were run. The
results are as follows:
Goal Coverage 60% 78% of trials fully covered the goal
80%
70%
•
In 410 trials 90% or more of the goal was
50%
40%
covered
30%
20%
the goal was covered
10% • In 53 trials 65% or more, but less than 90%, of
0% • In 37 trials less than 65% of the goal was
0 250 500 covered
Trials
The earliest age (year) at which you could not cover
your total needs is 72 / 74 (2039).
90% or more of the goal was covered 65% to 90% of the goal was covered Less than 65% of the goal was covered
The portfolio for Retirement is assumed to have the current asset mix pre-retirement and the current asset
mix during the retirement period.

IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by this Probability Analysis regarding the likelihood of various investment
outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary
with each use and over time. Other investments not considered may have characteristics that are similar to or superior to those being
analyzed.
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This plan is not complete without the Assumptions and Disclosures pages appearing at the end.
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