Page 16 - Gi_August2019

DIGITAL GUIDANCE OF UNCERTAINTY

REDUCTION IN HYDROGEN VALUE CHAINS

By Simen Eldevik, transport and final usage, such that with gas reforming and transport
Principal Research energy can flow from source to sink. will be more expensive than the
Scientist, DNV GL – Several alternative value chains are corresponding natural gas value chain.
being considered today; and decisions
This raises several uncertainties
Group Technology relating to where the hydrogen is relating to how economic incentives
and Research, Oil & Gas produced and where CO₂ is stored are need to be formed to enable a transition
important, for example: from natural gas to hydrogen, ranging
Hydrogen produced from natural from policies on carbon taxes to
il and gas use is a significant gas with CCS of CO₂ before pipeline subsidising early investments to build
contributor to CO₂ emissions. The transport of H₂ for final use at the emerging market for hydrogen.
industry is therefore exploring destination site, potentially a As hydrogen produced from natural
low-emission value chains based different country gas with CCS (blue hydrogen) stems
O on oil and gas. One such low- Natural gas transported to destination from a fossil fuel, there are considerable
carbon alternative is a hydrogen value site, where production of hydrogen uncertainties relating to public
chain where hydrogen is produced from and storage of CO₂ takes place scepticism and corresponding political
natural gas with carbon capture and Different value chains each have their aspects. Other uncertainties include
storage (CCS). Since any chain is no own strengths and weaknesses, making current regulatory constraints on the
stronger than its weakest link, different large investment decisions a challenge. transportation of CO₂ across borders.
possible hydrogen value chains are Furthermore, when comparing the This effectively hinders nationalities
being assessed, each with their own alternatives, one must pay due respect without CO₂ storage capabilities from
strengths, weaknesses and uncertainties. to all the uncertainties that exist along importing natural gas and reforming it
Several projects, studies, and large-scale the value chain, including technical and to hydrogen with CCS. A consequence of
experiments are being performed to commercial uncertainties and uncertainty this is that hydrogen reformation must
build further knowledge and reduce in future policy decisions. This calls for be carried out by nations that can store
uncertainty in these value chains. novel probabilistic approaches when CO₂ and subsequently transport the
An effective approach for combining comparing the total uncertainty of one reformed hydrogen to the consuming
both certain and uncertain knowledge value chain with another. country and its end users.
when assessing the value chains is Achieving decarbonisation requires The transportation of hydrogen is
probabilistic approaches. Here, different hydrogen to be produced with a low mainly achieved with trucks (compressed
uncertainties can be combined and new carbon footprint, which implies that gas or cryogenic liquid) and pipelines.
information can easily be incorporated hydrogen must be produced from DNV GL’s Sarah Kimpton discussed this
into the models through Bayesian renewable sources, or from coal or in the article ‘The Hydrogen Roadmap’,
updating. In this article, we present the natural gas with CCS. Producing it featured in April’s Gi, in which she
main parts of such a framework. from natural gas with CCS at large presented the case for blending hydrogen
scale facilities is currently the most in gas as a measure to gradually
Uncertainties in the hydrogen value chain cost-effective solution to minimise the transition from natural gas to hydrogen.
A hydrogen value chain consists of carbon footprint. However, if full decarbonisation of
all parts from production, through to However, the hydrogen value chain the gas value chain is the objective,

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