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vaccination  will  last  requires  not  only  clinical  trial  results,  but  also  post-use
               surveillance  after the  vaccination  program  is  rolled  out  next  year,  said  Indonesian
               Institute of Sciences (LIPI) biotechnology researcher Wien Kusharyoto.

               “No matter what, we still have to monitor, even after the vaccination is rolled out, the
               efficacy and the impacts among those already vaccinated. It's too early to say that it
               will last six months to two years," he said.

               Experts  have  urged  the  government  not  to  put  potential  vaccines  on  a  pedestal,
               saying that  whether it can truly rely on the vaccines  will depend on their eventual
               efficacy and safety to be shown in the results of the trials that are still under way, and
               the government should rather prepare for the "worst-case scenario".
               The efficacy threshold would be 50 percent, though ideally it should be around 70
               percent,  said  independent  molecular  biologist  Ahmad  Utomo,  adding  that  past
               vaccine development had shown that failures were not uncommon.

               Lower  than  50  percent,  then  vaccines  would  be  out  of  the  question,  he  said.  If  it
               hovered just above it then the government should reconsider whether putting in so
               much money into the vaccination program would be as effective as if the money was
               to  be  used  on  improving  public  health.  This  means  scaling  up  tests,  enhancing
               contact  tracing,  providing  financial  assistance  to  those  in  isolation  and  improving
               treatment,  he  said.  "The  government  should  look  into  which  of  these  will  be  most
               cost-effective," Ahmad said.

               Both Terawan and Erick have said that the vaccination program could possibly put a
               strain on the state budget if it were to be made free for all. Erick has suggested those
               who can afford it pay for it themselves, with current estimated costs ranging between
               US$25 and $30, as the government expects to cover some 93 million Social Security
               Agency (BPJS) beneficiaries in a vaccination program expected to start next year.

               But with the race to find vaccines, the trailing economic and political interests, and
               the government having secured hundreds of millions of doses, experts have raised
               concerns that these will all affect decisions by authorities.

               Wien  of  LIPI  expressed  the  hope  the  Food  and  Drug  Monitoring  Agency  (BPOM)
               would  remain  independent  from  all  sorts  of  intervention  in  evaluating  clinical  trial
               results and issuing permits, otherwise public health would be at stake.

               "If there are undesired effects [from the vaccines], there won't be trust among the
               people; this will put the vaccination program itself at risk and will automatically affect
               economic recovery efforts too," he said.

               BPOM head Penny Lukito hoped the trials would be successful, pointing to the fact
               that phase III human trials would not start if phase I and II trials were a failure.

               "The clinical trials we are on now are the phase III trials; this means that the phase I
               and  II  trials  involved  humans  and  have  succeeded,”  she  told  a  press  briefing  on
               Wednesday. “The phase III is not about whether [the vaccine is] a failure or not, but
               about gathering more data [on its efficacy and safety].”
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