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Thursday 25 augusT 2022 locAl
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            The Aruban economy grew by an estimated 16.2 percent during


            the first quarter of 2022



            Today  the  Centrale  Bank                                                                                          flow  of  Afl.  292.6  million  in
            van Aruba (CBA) published                                                                                           the  period  under  review,
            the  State  of  the  Economy                                                                                        which  was  partially  offset
            for the first quarter of 2022.                                                                                      by portfolio investment (net
            This publication provides a                                                                                         outflow  of  Afl.  40.9  million
            synopsis of this period's lo-                                                                                       associated  with  outgoing
            cal  and  international  eco-                                                                                       payments  in  connection
            nomic  developments.  The                                                                                           with  government  bond  re-
            domestic  highlights  are                                                                                           payments) and foreign ac-
            presented below, including                                                                                          counts (a net outflow of Afl.
            a summary of leading eco-                                                                                           38.6 million).
            nomic indicators.
                                                                                                                                The  government  financial
            During  the  first  quarter  of                                                                                     deficit  narrowed,  yet  the
            2022, the economy of Aru-                                                                                           government debt expand-
            ba  grew  by  an  estimated                                                                                         ed
            16.2  percent,  when  com-                                                                                          In  the  first  quarter  of  2022,
            pared  to  the  correspond-                                                                                         based  upon  available  in-
            ing quarter of 2021. This ex-  ic recovery. Revenue from  ing upwards                  resulted in a large inflow of   formation, the government
            pansion was mainly spurred   turnover  taxes  (+33.3  per-  Albeit at a relatively slower  foreign exchange         financial  operations  led  to
            by a strong rebound in the   cent)  and  taxes  on  com-  pace, inflation in Aruba has  International  transactions   the  financial  deficit  nar-
            tourism   sector.   Aruba's   modities  (+30.4  percent),  been  trending  upwards  settled  through  the  com-     rowing  to  Afl.  52.0  million
            year-on-year    real   GDP   total value of merchandise  since  the  beginning  of  mercial  banks  resulted  in    from Afl. 162.7 million. Total
            (Gross  Domestic  Product)   imports  (+40.3  percent),  2021. Compared to March  a  significant  net  inflow  of   government  revenue  in-
            growth has mainted its up-   and  the  number  of  I-Pago  2021,  the  end  of  period  foreign  exchange  of  Afl.   creased by Afl. 48.2 million,
            ward  trajectory  since  the   transactions  (+41.6  per-  inflation  stood  at  4.0  per-  402.9 million during the first   reaching  Afl.  271.2  million
            second quarter of 2021.      cent)  surged  in  response  cent  at  the  end  of  March  three months of 2022, push-  at the end of the first quar-
                                         to  the  increased  demand  2022.  When  measured  as  ing international reserves to   ter of 2022. However, total
            The  surge  in  tourism  ac-  brought on by the buoyant  the  percentage  change  Afl. 3,287.8 million. Both the    revenue  still  remained  be-
            tivities  was  reflected  in  a   tourism  performance.  Fur-  in  the  12-month  average  current  and  the  financial   low the 2019.
            jump in total stay-over visi-  thermore, household water  of the CPI (Consumer Price  accounts of the balance of
            tors and total visitor nights,   consumption  and  employ-  Index),  inflation  reached  payments  were  positively   First-quarter level (-10.4 per-
            leading  to  buoyant  de-    ment showed accelerated  2.1  percent  at  the  end  of  impacted,  recording  on      cent).  During  the  period
            velopments  in  the  tourism   growth,  while  household  March  2022.  The  real  ex-  balance a net inflow of Afl.   under  review,  total  gov-
            services  sector  and  total   electricity  consumption  re-  change rate of the Aruban  272.7  million  in  foreign  ex-  ernment  expenditure  con-
            tourism revenue. Aruba re-   bounded.                     florin vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar  change (2021 Q1: Afl. 92.3   tracted  by  Afl.  63.5  million
            ceived  a  total  of  233,666                             continued on a downward  million surplus).                to  Afl.  319.7  million,  mainly
            visitors, an increase of 108.0   Alternatively, credit market  trajectory in the first quarter                      because  of  contraction
            percent  compared  to  the   developments  pointed  to  of  2022,  thereby  improv-    The inflows on the financial   in  transfers  and  subsidies
            first  quarter  of  2021.  Total   sluggish  consumption  de-  ing  the  competitive  posi-  account  during  the  first   and in transfers to General
            visitor  nights  almost  dou-  mand,  as  witnessed  in  the  tion  of  Aruba  compared  quarter  of  2022  stemmed   Health Insurance (AZV).
            bled compared to the first   respective drop of 3.6 per-  to  the  United  States.  This  mainly  from  a  loan  re-
            quarter  of  2021,  reaching   cent and 6.5 percent in per-  improved  competitive  po-  ceived  from  the  Nether-  At the end of the first quar-
            1,828,141 nights. The higher   sonal  loans  and  car  loans.  sition  resulted  mainly  from  lands  (registered  as  ‘other   ter  of  2022,  the  govern-
            hotel  occupancy  rate  of   The Consumer Confidence  the consumer prices in the  investment’ in the Balance        ment  debt  rose  by  Afl.
            62.2  percent  and  a  spike   Index echoed the contrac-  United  States  rising  faster  of  Payments)  to  the  Gov-  360.2  million,  reaching  Afl.
            in  the  average  daily  rate   tions witnessed in total out-  than  those  in  Aruba.  In  ernment  of  Aruba  (GoA),   6,015.8  million,  represent-
            to  US$  355.30  led  to  a  sig-  standing  consumer  credit,  March  2022,  the  12-month  in order to repay its matur-  ing a growth of 6.4 percent
            nificant  increase  of  161.7   as  consumers  were  slightly  average  inflation  in  the  ing  external  debt  in  2022   when  compared  to  com-
            percent in the revenue per   more  pessimistic  in  the  first  United States amounted to  as  part  of  an  agreement   pared  to  December  2021.
            available  room  during  the   quarter of 2022 compared  6.2  percent,  against  a  2.1  with  the  Government  of   An  expansion  of  Afl  336.9
            first  quarter  of  2022.  Over   to the same period of 2021.  percent increase in Aruba.   the  Netherlands.  The  sub-  million in foreign debt and
            the same period, total tour-                                                           component  ‘other  invest-   an enlargement of Afl. 23.3
            ism revenue – as measured    Inflation  in  Aruba  is  trend-  International   transactions  ment’  resulted  in  a  net  in-  million  in  domestic  debt
            by tourism credits and reg-                                                                                         caused  the  increase  in
            istered  in  the  Balance  of                                                                                       debt. The developments in
            Payments – soared by 92.0                                                                                           government  debt  resulted
            percent to Afl. 874.8 million.                                                                                      in  an  estimated  debt-to-
                                                                                                                                GDP ratio of 103.3 percent
            Commensurately,       con-                                                                                          at the end of the first quar-
            sumption-related indicators                                                                                         ter  of  2022.  Thus,  although
            also  improved,  reflecting                                                                                         the  liquidity  support  from
            the  continued  economic                                                                                            the Netherlands facilitated
            recovery.  During  the  first                                                                                       short-term  government  fi-
            quarter  of  2022,  almost  all                                                                                     nancial operations and ob-
            consumption-related  indi-                                                                                          ligations,  these  additional
            cators  showed  improve-                                                                                            loans  further  exacerbated
            ment  compared  to  the                                                                                             the  government’s  limited
            same period of 2021, signi-                                                                                         fiscal space.q
            fying a continued econom-
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