Page 138 - Volume 2_CHANGES_merged_with links

The Africans ‘left behind’

Born poor, live poor, expect to die poor unless ...

Mitigate Risks where Policies Contribute to Fragility.
Better identify and mitigate risks associated with U.S. policies to verify they do not exacerbate

fragility to an extent that outweighs their benefits. For example, ensure security sector
assistance will not contribute to state fragility by creating imbalances across domestic

institutions.
Invest Across Agencies.
Ensure resources and priorities are equitably distributed and integrated across agencies.
Implementation of a fragile states strategy will necessarily involve interagency coordination
and encompass investments in development, diplomacy, and defense – all informed by

intelligence.”
"A Call for a New Strategic Approach to Fragile States 2016" (2016) 162
Andrew Albertson and Ashley Moran
Truman Center

*****
" To make sense of the conditions under which states fail, we focused on three key
determinants: geography, income, and institutions.

Geography
Geography plays an important role in determining the likelihood of state failure and the

outbreak of conflict through a number of channels. Its direct impact is felt in two ways. First,
the nature of the terrain plausibly shapes the ease with which armed groups can effectively

organize a credible challenge to the government.18 A mountainous, forested country poses a
substantial challenge to the capacity of its government to establish sovereignty and effective

control over large swaths of territory. Second, the endowment and quality of natural resources,
especially oil and minerals, raises the value of the "prize" to be had if armed groups can
capture the state.19 The incentives geography provides for insurgent groups to seek control of

the state are particularly pronounced in environments where centralized control is necessary to
extract resources effectively.

Geography also shapes state failure through two other channels.
First, geography is a key determinant of the income of a country. Its natural resources may
not be marketable, depriving a country of a critical source of income. The quality of the soil

and the amount of rainfall may not be conducive to growing crops, weakening the
agricultural sector of the economy.

The climate shapes the likely exposure of citizens to some diseases, making geography an
important determinant of the quality and quantity of human capital. Geography also has an
impact on the extent to which a country can trade in world markets. Distant, landlocked

countries face an uphill road trying to integrate into trading networks.