Page 19 - KZN BUSINESS SENSE Vol.2 NO.6

transformation in thE global EnErgY lanDscaPE

Source: IEA; Dept of Energy This transformation of the of the lack of easy alternatives to global warming. But meeting example, in the WEO-2016 2°C
global energy mix described oil in road freight, aviation and more ambitious climate goals scenario, the number of electric
s a result of major in WEO-2016 means that risks petrochemicals, according to will be extremely challenging cars would need to exceed 700
transformations in the to energy security also evolve. WEO-2016. However, oil demand and require a step change in the million by 2040, and displace
Aglobal energy system that Traditional concerns related to from passenger cars declines even pace of decarbonization and more than 6 million barrels a
take place over the next decades, oil and gas supply remain – and as the number of vehicles doubles efficiency. Implementing current day of oil demand. Ambitions to
renewables and natural gas are are reinforced by record falls in the next quarter century, international pledges will only further limit temperature gains,
the big winners in the race to in investment levels. Another thanks mainly to improvements slow down the projected rise in beyond 2°C, would require even
meet energy demand growth year of lower upstream oil in efficiency, but also biofuels and energy-related carbon emissions bigger efforts.
until 2040, according to the latest investment in 2017 would create rising ownership of electric cars. from an average of 650 million
edition of the World Energy a significant risk of a shortfall in tonnes per year since 2000 to Interestingly, the global trends
Outlook, the International new conventional supply within a Coal consumption barely grows around 150 million tonnes per noted here are repeated in
Energy Agency’s flagship few years. in the next 25 years, as demand in year in 2040. South Africa’s freshly released
publication. China starts to fall back thanks to Integrated Energy Plan (IEP)
In the longer-term, investment efforts to fight air pollution and While this is a significant released on 22 November 2016.
A detailed analysis of the in oil and gas remain essential diversify the fuel mix. The gas achievement, it is far from The Department of Energy
pledges made for the Paris to meet demand and replace market is also changing, with the enough to avoid the worst impact indicated that gas and renewables
Agreement on climate change declining production, but the share of LNG overtaking pipelines of climate change as it would will form the biggest chunk of
finds that the era of fossil fuels growth in renewables and and growing to more than half of only limit the rise in average installed capacity by 2050. Gas’
appears far from over and energy efficiency lessens the the global long-distance gas trade, global temperatures to 2.7°C percentage in the energy mix
underscores the challenge of call on oil and gas imports in up from a quarter in 2000. In an by 2100. The path to 2°C is in South Africa is forecast to
reaching more ambitious climate many countries. Increased LNG already well-supplied market, new tough, but it can be achieved if increase from the current 1.4% to
goals. Still, government policies, shipments also change how gas LNG from Australia, the United policies to accelerate further low 13.7% in 2040. 
as well as cost reductions across security is perceived. At the States and elsewhere triggers a carbon technologies and energy
the energy sector, enable a same time, the variable nature of shift to more competitive markets efficiency are put in place across Sponsored by SLG, the 2nd largest natural
doubling of both renewables renewables in power generation, and changes in contractual terms all sectors. gas trader in southern Africa
and of improvements in energy especially wind and solar, and pricing. 031 812 0555
efficiency over the next 25 years. entails a new focus on electricity It would require that carbon
Natural gas continues to expand security. The Paris Agreement, emissions peak in the next
its role while the shares of coal which entered into force on few years and that the global
and oil fall back. Global oil demand continues to 4 November, is a major step economy becomes carbon neutral
grow until 2040, mostly because forward in the fight against by the end of the century. For

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