Page 32 - The Welfare of Cattle

ChaPter 1

Can Food Production Keep Pace with
Population Growth, Changing Dietary habits,
and a Desire for higher Quality Protein?

Daniel M. Dooley
University of California

CONteNtS

Population Growth ...........................................................................................................................10
Changing Dietary Demand ..............................................................................................................10
Countervailing Trends ...................................................................................................................... 11
Agricultural Productivity ................................................................................................................. 11
Global Food Security Drivers and Challenges .................................................................................12
The Path Forward .............................................................................................................................13

An accelerating discussion about population growth, changing dietary habits, and the ability
of the global food system to keep pace with demand has occupied the minds of governments,
producers, processors, and nonprofit stakeholder communities. The conversations center around
how productivity can be enhanced to keep pace while minimizing impacts to the global environment
and respecting local customs and cultures. Current trajectories indicate that global food production
systems are perilously close to losing the race to meet the need expected by 2050.
Pressures to curb expansion of arable farmland to preserve forestlands, rainforests, watershed,
and other natural habitats are limiting options to expand productivity by creating more farmland.
These pressures have focused more attention on intensification of existing farmland to achieve even
greater productivity.
While estimates vary, food production will have to increase dramatically to meet demand in
*
2050. This issue must be considered in context of current estimates that nearly 800 million people
in the world exist on less than 1800 calories a day. Two billion people today are not getting sufficient
nutrients and approximately 900 million people today earn less than $1.90 a day.
This white paper will briefly look at population trends, projected food demand and dietary
trends, productivity growth rates and requirements, the impact of climate change, and challenges
to implementation of concerted global actions necessary to achievement of productivity required to
meet demand.

* The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models, Hugo Valin, et al., December 10, 2013.

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