Page 33 - The Welfare of Cattle

10 the WeLfare of CattLe

table 1.1 Population for the World and Major areas, 2015, 2030, 2050, and 2100 according to the
Medium Variant Projection
Populations (Millions)
Major area 2015 2030 2050 2100
World 7.349 8.501 9.725 11.213
africa 1.186 1.679 2.478 4.387
asia 4.393 4.923 5.267 4.889
europe 738 734 707 646
Latin america and the Caribbean 634 721 784 721
north america 358 396 433 500
oceania 39 47 57 71
Source: united nations, department of economic and social affairs, Population division (2015). World Population
Prospects: the 2015 revision. new York: united nations.

POPULatION GrOWth

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Populations Division estimated
world population in 2015 at 7.349 billion people. They estimate the number to increase to 9.725
billion by 2050 and 11.213 billion by 2100.
The projections shown in Table 1.1 suggest modest growth in Asia, Latin America, and the
Caribbean. They show substantial growth in Africa, Oceania, and North America. Interestingly,
Europe’s population is expected to fall.
World population did not reach one billion people until 1804. It took another 123 years to reach
two billion, 33 additional years to reach three billion, and 14 additional years to reach five billion.
While the rate of growth has slowed somewhat, growth is occurring nonetheless. Global population
is not expected to stabilize until the year 2100.

ChaNGING DIetarY DeMaND

In addition to population growth, several other factors impact demand for food. Notably, the
increase in personal income worldwide is driving change in dietary demand. In many regions of the
world, low-income populations are moving into middle-income categories. Furthermore, there is a
general view that this trend will continue.
Generally, rising incomes lead to higher demand for meats and other higher value foods. As this
trend continues, further strains on the food production systems will occur in as much as this transi-
tion is more resource intensive to support. Per capita consumption of meat and milk has increased
considerably in both developed and developing countries in recent decades, but the increase in
developing countries has been more dramatic. If developing countries reach the levels seen in the
developed countries, there will be dramatic overall increases in the coming decades, which will
further stress resources. *
These trends in dietary changes continue notwithstanding the argument of some suggesting that
the food system would be far more efficient and have less adverse impacts if global diets were plant
based.

* Don Hofstrand, AgMRC Renewable Energy &Climate Change Newsletter, February 2014.