Page 35 - The Welfare of Cattle

12 the WeLfare of CattLe

Total factor productivity has replaced resource intensification as the primary source
of growth in world agriculture
Total output growth (percent/year)
3.0
Expansion of agricultural land Extension of irrigation to cropland
More inputs per acre Improvements in total factor productivity
2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
1961–70 1971–80 1981–90 1991–2000 2001–10
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, derived from Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations and other agricultural data using methods described in Fuglie et al. (2012).

The United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service estimates that the
recent uptick in productivity in the last two decades is due to increases in the developing countries
and the transition of the economies of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. A larger num-
ber of countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have yet to see such increased productivity.
In developed countries, total inputs to agriculture have fallen while output has continued to grow.
The uncertain potential impacts on productivity of climate change must also be considered.
These potential impacts present a significant challenge for the world. While previous modeling
summarized climate change and potential adaption as a function of temperature, they have not
examined the uncertainty, the timing of impacts, or the relative effectiveness of various adaptation
strategies. Additionally, figuring out how to enhance productivity while reducing agricultural
*
contributions to the emission of greenhouse gases continues to be a vexing challenge.
These statistics raise the principal question about whether productivity is growing at a rate
essential to meet demand. Several recent studies suggest that yields on 24%–39% of the globe’s
most important croplands are no longer increasing.
Some suggest that the easiest way to accelerate productivity increases is to work with the least
productive by aiding them to adopt best practices. Others say we must intensify further the most
highly productive lands to increase output and minimize the consumption of resources. Perhaps
ramped up investments in research and development is the answer. More likely, it will require an
integrated strategy using all levers on the control panel.

GLOBaL FOOD SeCUrItY DrIVerS aND ChaLLeNGeS †

Success in meeting the increasing demand for food is a function of how the global community
meets the many challenges and opportunities facing it. The paper has previously mentioned the

* A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation, A. J. Challinor et al., Nature Climate Change (2014).
† Adapted in part from the Global Food Security Strategic Plan (2017), Global Food Security, a multiagency program
bringing together the main UK public sector funders of research and training related to food.