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//Situation Report 27

The INFOFISH Global Covid-19 Situation Report continues with an opinion piece on the predicted impact of the pandemic
on the Latin American tuna industry, written by one of our regular contributors , Mr Dario Chemerinski

LATIN AMERICA: THE By late March 2020, the Covid-19 virus had arrived in full
strength across Latin America. In economic terms, the region
RESHAPING OF THE TUNA was already growing very slowly, at less than 1% a year on
average; thus the impact of the virus will be profound,
LANDSCAPE AFTER COVID-19 affecting many areas such as commodity exports, which
will be met with lower prices. It will also affect the tourism
industry, reduce remittances by foreign workers, cause
shutdowns of service businesses and cut down exports due to
the contraction of their biggest export market, China. The UN
estimates that the number of poor in Latin America, out of a
total of 650m, will soon rise from 185m to 220m. Adding say,
another 35 million poor people to the already impoverished
region will put huge pressure on many populist governments
that were elected claiming the usual mantra of “we care for
the poor”.
In political and social terms, Latin America has been suffering
major discontent and despair, and has seen many protests
especially in Chile, Ecuador and Venezuela. Moreover, the
election of two very different populist governments in Brazil
Masked Mexican workers on a US boat, carrying tuna to a dock for sale, and Mexico, right and left-oriented respectively, together
March 2020
with the return of the Peronists in Argentina, have shaken the
By the time this paper is published, more than 2.5 million foundations of the strong middle classes in those countries,
people globally would have been infected by the Covid-19 which are the three biggest economies in Latin America.
virus, causing about 250 000 deaths around the globe. Despite having chosen these leaders democratically, there is
Spreading at an astonishing speed in less than four months, a fear now that there are fewer opportunities for progress
this deadly virus has traveled from a live animal and food and no clear horizons ahead. It is obvious that Covid-19 will
market in Wuhan, China, to almost every country in five significantly alter the paths of global economies including
continents. Latin America, unless governments act with responsibility,

Without a vaccine or cure in the near future, the common sense and transparency to avoid a major disaster.
consequences for some countries will be much more severe This brings us to the subject of this paper: Will the virus
than for the richer ones. This is not only because of their reshape the tuna landscape in Latin America? And if so,
poorer healthcare systems but also because social distancing how?
and urban “lockdowns”, especially in highly crowded slums, In order to find the answers to this, we will first look at “The
are very difficult to enforce. Lower income countries in parts day after”. In other words, assuming one day the virus will
of Latin America, Africa, and Asia will be the hardest-hit by eventually disappear, or a vaccine is developed, we must list
this pandemic.
all potential changes that may affect the region, especially
Latin America: the big picture those related to food production and consumption. After we
have identified all this, we will be in a position to narrow our
The hope is that with the hot climate, the mainly young search and analysis down to our favourite fish: tuna.
demographics and the (still high) rural percentage of the
population, Latin America may avoid a major disaster on the What will happen “the “day after”?
horrific scale as the ones we have seen in Europe and parts
of the US. Nevertheless, according to some estimates (e.g. Perhaps one of the few certainties we have in these turbulent
the IDB bank) in 2020 , Latin America will most likely suffer a times is that one day this crisis will be over. To understand
contraction of not less than 5% of its combined GDP, and the the implications of how Covid-19 will affect us, we can divide
damage will continue throughout 2021 and possibly 2022, them into two groups: global ones, and those specific for
unless strict sanitary measures are implemented. Latin America, as follows:

INFOFISH International 3/2020 ● www.infofish.org