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//Situation Report 29

Table 1: Producing countries in the region Table 3a: Post-virus effects on tuna suppliers/producers
Factors Upside Downside Suppliers/producers
Tuna in Latin Producers Non-producers (most affected)
America
Recession in 2020 (GDP) Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico
South America Equador, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay,
Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Guyana, Suriname, Regionalism: economic Brazil/Mercosur, Peru/
Venezuela Paraguay blocs may lose relevance Pacific Alliance, Mexico/
NAFTA
Global value chains: El Salvador, Guatemala,
Central America & Mexico, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama, disruption affects trade Colombia- Ecuador,
Caribbean El Salvador, Guatemala Honduras, Belize, Cuba, and increases costs factories owned by
Rest of the Caribbean multinationals
Diversification of
Although there is a common language (Spanish) uniting all 33 suppliers/origins
countries (except for Brazil, where they speak Portuguese), China: reduced
there are significant differences in their eating and purchasing dependence
habits. Tuna is no exception, as Latin American consumers Tariffs/ protectionism Brazil, Costa Rica,
have various ways of consuming it at different occasions, and Colombia
even according to the time of the year (Lent and Easter). Non-tariff barriers Ecuador, Brazil
However, for the purpose of our study, we can separate them Robotisation of factories
into heavy and light users (Table 2). A common way of doing Oil prices: historic low Good for fishing fleets
this is using 1kg a year per capita as the benchmark, which is Bad for economy
approximately six cans per person per year, as follows: (Ecuador)
Table 2: Main consuming countries Table 3b: Post-virus effects on tuna demand/consumers

Tuna in Latin Heavy users (more Light users (less than 1kg/ Factors Upside Downside Potential effect Countries to
America than 1kg/year/ year/person) lose/gain the
most
person)
Recession Trading down of All countries
affecting tuna
South America Equador, Chile, Brazil, Uruguay, Bolivia, consumption
Venezuela (pre-crisis) Uruguay, Guyana, Lockdown Increase in Brazil, Peru,
Suriname, Paraguay, effect: more consumption Argentina
Colombia meals at home per capita
Home office Convenience Brazil, Colombia,
Central America Mexico, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Guatemala, (remote work) products: ready Argentina
& Caribbean Panama Honduras, Belize, Cuba, to eat salads/
snacks/packs
Rest of Caribbean
Online Rise in retail Brazil, Peru,
shopping sales/ HORECA Colombia,
decrease Argentina
Now that we have divided the Latin American countries into Products with Increased sales, Brazil, Peru,
clusters of producers vis a vis consumers as in Tables 1 and 2, longer shelf life more multipacks Colombia,
Argentina
(e.g. canned
options
by looking at the predicted impact of Covid -19, we can infer food)
which of these countries may eventually “benefit” from the Increased Trading up of Brazil, Colombia
unfolding situation. On the supply side, we can select among demand for tuna
food which is
the effects mentioned, the upsides and downsides for the traceable/”safe”
tuna producing countries in a post-virus situation. The next Perceptionas Trading up of Brazil, Colombia
task is identifying the countries that are likely to be most healthier food tuna
affected (Table 3a). Sustainability as Trading up of Brazil, Colombia
flagship for top
tuna
brands
From the demand side (i.e. the consumers), by thinking Decreased Decrease in solid Mexico, Brazil,
about the upside effects, we can predict the factors which purchasing tuna/increase Colombia,
can bring out an increase in tuna intake through time, and power for in flake/chunk Argentina
tuna options
middle income
those causing consumers to acquire new habits and uses. On classes
the downside, a possible move to cheaper, lower quality tuna
may occur. We then identify the countries that have more to Opinion: Ecuador is facing a “perfect storm”- among all
the tuna producers, it will be the hardest hit country by
“gain” from the virus crisis (Table 3b). Covid-19 in the Latin American region.

INFOFISH International 3/2020 ● www.infofish.org