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(31) This was first pointed out to me by Jamie Heywood from Patients-
LikeMe, who spent huge resources trying and failing to replicate research
findings in another area of medicine. The last time I saw him we talked
about writing up his idea that the likelihood of a claim being true is pro-
portional to the cost of making it, and inversely proportional to the cost
of refuting it. We’ve not done so, and until then, a description of our con-
versation is the only reference for this neat idea.

(32) Begley CG, Ellis LM. Drug development: Raise standards for pre-
clinical cancer research. Nature. 2012 Mar 28;483(7391): 531–3.

(33) Harrabin R et al (2003). Health In The News, The King’s Fund,
London, UK.

(34) Forsyth, Alasdair J. M. 2001. Distorted? a quantitative exploration
of drug fatality reports in the popular press. International Journal of Drug
Policy 12, no. 5-6 (November 1): 435–453.

(35) Dickersin K, Min YI, Meinert CL: Factors influencing publication of
research results: follow-up of applications submitted to two institutional
review boards. JAMA 1992, 267:374–378.

(36) Olson CM, Rennie D, Cook D, Dickersin K, Flanagin A, Hogan JW,
Zhu Q, Reiling J, Pace B: Publication bias in editorial decision making. JAMA
2002, 287:2825–2828.

(37) Lee KP, Boyd EA, Holroyd-Leduc JM, Bacchetti P, Bero LA. Predic-
tors of publication: characteristics of submitted manuscripts associated
with acceptance at major biomedical journals. Med J Aust 2006;184:621–
6. Lynch JR, Cunningham MRA, Warme WJ, Schaad DC, Wolf FM, Leopold SS.
Commercially funded and United States-based research is more likely to
be published; good-quality studies with negative outcomes are not. J Bone
Joint Surg Am 2007;89:1010–8. Okike K, Kocher MS, Mehlman CT, Heck-
man JD, Bhandari M. Publication bias in orthopaedic research: an analysis

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