Page 50 - The 'X' Chronicles Newspaper - September 2021

50 The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories

The Psychology of

Conspiracy Theories

by Karen M. Douglas, Robbie M.
Sutton, Aleksandra Cichocka

What psychological factors drive the popularity
of conspiracy theories, which explain important
events as secret plots by powerful and
malevolent groups? What are the psychological
consequences of adopting these theories? We
review the current research and find that it
answers the first of these questions more
thoroughly than the second. Belief in conspiracy
theories appears to be driven by motives that can
be characterized as epistemic (understanding available information is conflicting, finding may satisfy some epistemic motives at the
one’s environment), existential (being safe and meaning when events seem random, and expense of others—for example, by shielding
in control of one’s environment), and social defending beliefs from disconfirmation. beliefs from uncertainty while being less likely
(maintaining a positive image of the self and the Relevant to these motives, conspiracy theories to be accurate. The epistemic drawbacks of
social group). However, little research has have attributes that set them apart from other conspiracy theories do not seem to be readily
investigated the consequences of conspiracy types of causal explanation. Albeit to varying apparent to people who lack the ability or
belief, and to date, this research does not degrees, they are speculative in that they posit motivation to think critically and rationally.
indicate that conspiracy belief fulfills people’s actions that are hidden from public scrutiny, Conspiracy belief is correlated with lower levels
motivations. Instead, for many people, complex in that they postulate the coordination of analytic thinking (Swami, Voracek, Stieger,
conspiracy belief may be more appealing than of multiple actors, and resistant to falsification Tran, & Furnham, 2014) and lower levels of
satisfying. Further research is needed to in that they postulate that conspirators use education (Douglas, Sutton, Callan, Dawtry, &
determine for whom, and under what conditions, stealth and disinformation to cover up their Harvey, 2016). It is also associated with the
conspiracy theories may satisfy key actions—implying that people who try to tendency to overestimate the likelihood of co-
psychological motives. debunk conspiracy theories may, themselves, be occurring events (Brotherton & French, 2014)
part of the conspiracy (Lewandowsky et al., and the tendency to perceive agency and
Over a third of Americans believe that global 2015). A related property of conspiracy theories intentionality where it does not exist (Douglas et
warming is a hoax (Swift, 2013), and over half is that they can protect cherished beliefs (e.g., al., 2016).
believe that Lee Harvey Oswald did not act vaccination is harmful; climate change is not a
alone in the assassination of John F. Kennedy serious concern) by casting overwhelmingly In light of their objective or normative
(Jensen, 2013). These are examples of disconfirmatory evidence (e.g., scientific limitations, how well do conspiracy theories
conspiracy theories—explanations for important findings) as the product of a conspiracy satisfy the epistemic motives that draw people to
events that involve secret plots by powerful and (Lewandowsky, Oberauer, & Gignac, 2013). them? Relatively little research has addressed
malevolent groups (e.g., Goertzel, 1994). In this question, and it suggests that they may be
recent years, there has been growing interest in In general, empirically warranted (vs. more appealing than satisfying. On one hand,
the psychological factors that drive the speculative), parsimonious (vs. complex), and extreme and entrenched attitude positions are
popularity of conspiracy theories, and in this falsifiable explanations are stronger according to associated with conspiracy beliefs, suggesting
article, we draw together and organize findings normative standards of causal explanation (e.g., that they may help people defend beliefs from
from this burgeoning research. This research in science; see Grimes, 2016). However, disconfirmation (Uscinski, Klofstad, &
suggests that people may be drawn to conspiracy conspiracy theories appear to provide broad, Atkinson, 2016). In contrast, recent experiments
theories when—compared with nonconspiracy internally consistent explanations that allow indicate that presenting people with persuasive
explanations—they promise to satisfy important people to preserve beliefs in the face of cases for conspiracy theories about vaccination
social psychological motives that can be uncertainty and contradiction. In keeping with (Jolley & Douglas, 2014a) and climate change
characterized as epistemic (e.g., the desire for this analysis, research suggests that belief in (Jolley & Douglas, 2014b) increases their levels
understanding, accuracy, and subjective conspiracy theories is stronger when the of uncertainty.
certainty), existential (e.g., the desire for control motivation to find patterns in the environment is
and security), and social (e.g., the desire to experimentally heightened (Whitson & (Contined on Page 51)
maintain a positive image of the self or group). Galinsky, 2008). It is also stronger among
This taxonomy, derived from system- people who habitually seek meaning and
justification theory (Jost, Ledgerwood, & patterns in the environment, including believers According to Statista, the current number
Hardin, 2008), serves as a useful heuristic to in paranormal phenomena (e.g., Bruder, Haffke, of smartphone users in the world today is
classify the motives associated with conspiracy Neave, Nouripanah, & Imhoff, 2013; but see 3.8 billion, and this means 48.16% of the
belief. However, the comparatively scarce Dieguez, Wagner-Egger, & Gauvrit, 2015). It
world’s population owns a smartphone.
research examining the consequences of also appears to be stronger when events are This figure is up considerably from 2016
conspiracy theories does not indicate that they especially large in scale or significant and leave
ultimately help people fulfill these motives. people dissatisfied with mundane, small-scale when there were only 2.5 billion users,
explanations (Leman & Cinnirella, 2013). 33.58% of that year’s global population.
Epistemic Motives Furthermore, the need for cognitive closure is Yet, when it comes to the paranormal,
associated with beliefs in salient conspiracy supernatural, or occult, there are no
Finding causal explanations for events is a core theories for events that lack clear official smoking gun photos that are clear and
part of building up a stable, accurate, and explanations (Marchlewska, Cichocka, & concise when it come to UFOs, Aliens,
internally consistent understanding of the world Kossowska, 2017). Also, research suggests that Ghosts, Bigfoot, Lochness Monster,
(Heider, 1958). Specific epistemic motives that conspiracy belief is stronger when people Angels,or other photos that could be used
causal explanations may serve include slaking experience distress as a result of feeling as evidence to convince people of their
curiosity when information is unavailable, uncertain (van Prooijen & Jostmann, 2013). existence. How come? Huh!?!
reducing uncertainty and bewilderment when Our analysis suggests that conspiracy theories