Page 551 - Environment: The Science Behind the Stories

Cosmetics, Shower Nylon and Light switch Pesticides Tires, upholstery, Plastic Containers Nonstick coating
medicines, curtain polyester and and automobile lampshade on cookware
lotions, clothing fertilizers components Paraffin waxes
and soap Shower Plastic picture Bicycle Plastic cups on fruit, candy,
Toothbrush head frame components Asphalt Gasoline and dishware and other food

Plastic Shoes with Plastic storage Vinyl and plastic Home heating oil Blender and other Components of
wastebasket synthetic soles box laminate furniture to heat house small appliances stove and other
Detergents, Polypropylene CDs and DVDs Components Linoleum large appliances
cleaning supplies Toilet seat coat in TV and stereo flooring
FIGURE 19.11 Petroleum products are everywhere in our daily lives. Besides the fuels we use for trans-
portation and heating, petroleum is used to make many of the fabrics we wear, the materials we consume, and
the plastics in countless items we use every day.

than these figures suggest, because proven reserves tend to be accurate; U.S. production peaked in that very year and has
increase as technology becomes more powerful and as mar- fallen since then (FIGURE 19.12a). The peak in production came
ket prices rise. Indeed, mining for oil sands and hydraulic to be known as Hubbert’s peak.
fracturing for natural gas in recent years have increased the In 1974, Hubbert analyzed data on technology, econom-
proven reserves of these fuels in North America substantially. ics, and geology, and predicted that global oil production
In fact, advances in oil and gas extraction in the United States would peak in 1995. It grew past 1995, but many scientists
in the past several years have been so great that the Interna- using newer data today predict that at some point in the com-
tional Energy Agency in 2012 predicted a resurgence would ing decade, production will begin to decline (FIGURE 19.12b).
make the United States the world’s biggest oil producer into Discoveries of new oil fields peaked 30 years ago, and since
the 2020s. then we have been extracting and consuming more oil than we
Regardless of how many years’ worth of a resource we have been discovering.
might calculate to be left, a society dependent on that resource
will face a crisis not when the last bit of it is extracted from
the ground, but rather once the rate of its production comes
to a peak and begins to decline. In general, production of a FAQ Why should I worry about “peak oil” if
resource tends to decline once reserves are depleted halfway. there are still years of oil left?
Past this production peak, if demand for the resource holds Bear in mind that the term peak oil doesn’t refer to running
steady or continues to increase while production declines, out of oil. It refers to the point at which our production of oil
a shortage will result. Many scientists and economists have comes to a peak. Once we pass this peak and production
been anxious about this phenomenon with oil, and the sce- begins to decline, the economics of supply and demand take
nario has come to be nicknamed peak oil. Because we have over. Supply will fall, with some estimates putting the decline
already used roughly half of Earth’s conventional oil reserves, at 5% per year. Demand, meanwhile, is forecast to continue
many experts calculate that a peak oil crisis may well begin in rising, especially as China, India, and other industrializing
the very near future. nations put millions of new vehicles on the road. The resulting
divergence of supply and demand would drive up oil prices,
causing substantial economic ripple effects. Although high
Peak oil will pose challenges oil prices will provide financial incentive to develop alternative

To understand concerns about peak oil, we need to turn back energy sources and better conservation measures, we may
the clock to 1956. In that year, Shell Oil geologist M. King be challenged in a depressed economy to find adequate time
Hubbert calculated that U.S. oil production would peak around and resources to develop new renewable sources.
550 1970. His prediction was ridiculed at the time, but it proved to

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