Page 5 - CCFA Journal - 11th Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 Macro Economy

What was really interesting about the China reopening, when 中国无疑是一个巨大的市场催化剂。关于中国重新开放，
we spoke to management teams in November that really 真正有趣的是当我们在 11 月与真正依赖中国的管理团队交
depend on China, we had no visibility on when China was 谈时，没人知道中国何时重新开放。当我们在 12 月突然获
reopening. So when we got that surprise reopen in December, 悉中国重启游戏继续就开始了。你看到的每个人都从中国
the game was on. 重新开放中获益。无论你是一个材料股，或者与旅游或消

And so what you saw is that everyone got the benefit that 费，亦或者工业活动有关，一切都是中国故事。由于股价
China was reopening. And it didn't matter if you were a 上涨，几乎所有人都害怕错失良机。最先引起我们注意的
material stock, if you were tied to travel or consumer 一个行业是澳门的赌场股。之前没有活动，他们的股价一
consumption, industrial activity. It was just everything was 度暴跌。但是一下子，它们上涨了 100%。现在我们看到的
China. And there was almost FOMO, Fear Of Missing Out, 是，在重新开放了大约五六个月之后，它们现在必须适应
because stock prices went up. 这些价格波动。我们看到它们从谷底经历了 100%的上涨，

One of the first sectors that really caught our eye was the 有些已经回调了 20%，但整体趋势呈横盘。在持久的行业
casino stocks in Macau. So again, no activity. Their stocks have 中，持续表现出色的是奢侈品。这个主题为投资者津津乐
been cratered. And right away, they were up 100%. And so 道。
what we've seen now-- and we're about five, six months into 中国的重新开放确实推动了奢侈品公司的发展。我们看到
reopening-- they now have to grow into those price 爱马仕、路威酩轩等公司发布财报，它们的股票价格正在
movements. So we've had these 100%moves off the bottom. 创下历史新高。有一点非常有趣，我想我们有一些图表可
Some have retraced by 20% but they're going sideways.
以展示出市场的波动和不确定性，以及资金配置的问题。
The enduring sectors, the one that has continued to work, has 我们看到人们更青睐现金或 GIC（保证存款证书）。然而，
been luxury. This is a theme that we have been talking about 当你看到路威酩轩或爱马仕等奢侈品股票的图表时，表现
for quite some time. China reopening has helped enfuel the 一如既往强劲，你甚至无法察觉市场上存在任何问题，这
luxury companies. And we've seen companies like Hermes, 真是令人惊讶。特别是一些在美国上市的公司会受益于中
LVMH report, and their stocks are pushing to brand new highs. 国市场，比如耐克、星巴克和雅诗兰黛。
The part that's quite interesting-- and I think we have some
charts to show just the performance. So people talk about the
choppiness of the market and the uncertainty in the market
and where to put their allocation. And we've seen people
gravitate to cash or GICs. And yet when you look at a chart like
an LVMH or Hermes or other luxury stocks, you wouldn't even
know that there were any issues going on. It's quite amazing.

There are specifically US listed companies that would get the
benefit of China. So let's say a Nike or a Starbucks or Estee
Lauder. We've seen mixed results.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE July 2023 Page 5 第5页