Page 6 - CCFA Journal - 11th Issue

宏观经济 Macro Economy 加中金融

Greg. And Starbucks is supposed to be counting on China for 我们看到了一些复杂的结果，喜忧参半。星巴克本应该
sort of a big growth engine for it. 寄望于中国成为其巨大增长引擎的。事实上，他们昨天
Ben. And in fact, Greg, they reported yesterday. Their March 发布了财报。仅仅在三月份，他们的同店销售额增长了
comp store-- so comparable store sales in March alone were 30%。商业活动如常。但对投资者来说数据令人失望，股
up 30%. So the activity is there. What was disappointing for 价回落了 9%，市值缩水了。原因是预期恐怕没有延续到
investors and why the stock took back 9% in its market cap is 今年的其余时间。因此，现在出现了这个问题。我们已
that the expectations weren't carried forward through the 经看到了疫情放开后的井喷。那是否会持续下去？管理
rest of the year. 层是否告诉我们这种增长不可持续？或者管理层是否非
常保守，希望降低我们的预期，并使其能够逐步增长？
So there is this question now. We've seen this big move in 我更倾向于保守。
activity. Does that continue? So is management telling us
that that's not sustainable? Or is management being very Greg. 但活动确实出现了。雅诗兰黛。这是化妆品吧。 这
conservative, wanting to lower our expectations and 就像，你可以走出家门，你可以做一些事情，你知道，
something that they can grow into? 你想看起来很精神好看。为什么——我知道你认为它是

So I lean more on the conservative part. But definitely the 那些正在失去动力的公司之一。为什么呢?
activity showed up.
Ben. 是的。而且不是随便什么化妆品。我们说的是名牌
Greg. Estee Lauder. I mean, this is makeup, right? 化妆品。这是我们关注的公司之一。我们使用的那种东
西。在镜头前，有威望。当然可以。他们的利润率看起
Ben. Yeah.
来很像软件公司。所以，这是一个非常有利可图的行业。
Greg. This is like, you get to go out of the house, you get to 真正有趣的是，如果你看看雅诗兰黛的股票图表，就在
do things, and you know, you want to look good. Why-- I COVID 之前，大约 10 月，它的交易价格接近低点。它从
think you have it as one of those companies that's losing 中国重启中获益。对于雅诗兰黛来说，他们的很多销售
steam. Why is that? 都与旅行有关。所以如果人们要去某个地方，他们会去

Ben. Yeah. And not just any makeup. We're talking about 免税店。他们会在你在机场看到的所有商店买化妆品。
prestige makeup. So it's one of those companies we look at 他们依赖于这个。所以他们受益于重启的假设。就像投
financials. 资者一样，我们必须假设哪些公司会从重新开放中受益。
管理团队必须假设我订购了多少?我试着卖多少给渠道，
Greg. The kind of stuff that we use. Be in front of a camera, 零售，最后，比如说，卖给你和我的商家，这样我们就
prestige.
能看起来很好?所以他们做了很多大的假设。所以有活动，
Ben. Of course. And their margins look a lot like a software 就像我们说的星巴克。有活动，但他们没有将客户转化
company. So again, this is a very profitable business. 为销售额。所以现在，他们的库存和渠道都非常庞大。
所以当他们卖给商家时，他们会确认收入，而现在商家
What's really interesting is if you look at the stock chart for
Estee Lauder, Greg, just prior to COVID, around October, this 只是坐拥太多的库存。即使是像海南这样的旅游胜地，
was trading near lows. It gets the benefit of the reopening. 也有大量的商业活动，但顾客就是不买美容产品。因此，
我们看到消费者信心在新冠疫情期间受到了真正的影响。
And for Estee Lauder, a lot of their sales are tied to travel. So 人们从疫情走出来了。他们想去旅行。他们想要感觉良
if people are going to go somewhere, they go to duty free. 好。但他们在花钱方面非常挑剔。
They will buy makeup in all those stores that you see in the
airport. So they depend on that. And so they got the benefit
of the doubt. And much like investors, we had to make
assumptions on which companies would benefit from
reopening.
Management teams have to make assumptions of how much
do I order? How much do I try to sell to the channel, the
retail, the end, let's say, merchant that's going to sell to you
and me so that we can look good?

And so they made a lot of big assumptions. And so there is
activity, just like we said with Starbucks. There is activity, but
they're not converting the customer into those sales. And so
right now, they have a very bloated inventory and a bloated
channel. So they make a revenue recognition when they sell
to the merchant, and right now the merchant is just sitting
on too much stock.
And so even provinces like Hainan, which would be very
popular for a resort area, there is tremendous volume
activity, but the customer is just not buying the beauty
product. So we saw consumer confidence get really
impacted in COVID with China. People are coming out. They
want to travel. They want to feel good. But they're being
very selective of what they spend their money on.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE July 2023
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