Page 7 - CCFA Journal - 11th Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 Macro Economy

Well, let's talk about traveling, right. I mean, once you start to So we thought that-- COVID coming away, we thought there
reopen an economy and people can go on vacation, they can would be stimulus. We've seen manufacturing activity kind of
move about, there's obviously some names that are tied to that. be lackluster versus expectations. And we've seen materials like
This one, Trip.com, Ctrip. From the name alone, I'm assuming iron ore get a lift up and then have completely retraced and
that's something to do with travel. Am I making a big leap there? rebounded. So it goes across all sectors.

Greg. So this is their online e-travel company, similar to what So I'd say that initial wave, that initial euphoria has come down.
people would think of like a booking.com Trip advisor. The enduring sectors, I'd say, have been, let's say, aerospace
and luxury.
Ben. So yes, has it gotten the benefit of the doubt. And then
now it's sort of that there might be some profit taking. We've 好吧，我们来谈谈旅行吧。我的意思是，一旦你开始重新开
seen some-- the activity is not as much as our expectations 放经济，人们可以去度假，他们可以四处走动，显然有一些
going into it. I will say for travel, and what I've learned just 名字与之相关。这个，Trip.com，携程。单从名字上看，我
speaking to people on the ground, is that a lot of Chinese 猜这和旅行有关。我这么说是不是太大胆了?
citizens, their passports expired over COVID. In many countries,
they need to apply for visas. And so, yes, you're thinking, OK, Greg. 这是他们的在线电子旅游公司，类似于人们想象中的
they're going to go and travel. We've seen domestic airline TripAdvisor。
activity exceed pre-COVID levels. International activity is still
very subdued. Ben. 所以，是的，它收益于不确定。现在可能会有一些获利
回吐。我们看到了一些——商业活动并没有我们预期的那么
And so when I look at opportunity, there's still a tremendous 多。我想说的是，对于旅行，我在与当地人们交谈时了解到，
opportunity, probably late spring into summer, where travelers 很多中国公民的护照在新冠肺炎期间过期了。在许多国家，
can get their visas updated, can get their visas, will go to Europe 他们需要申请签证。所以，你会想他们会去旅行。我们看到
and other countries and start spending money. 国内航空公司的活动超过了疫情前的水平。国际间旅游活动

Greg. What are the risks for a name like that, if you are 仍然非常低迷。
counting on a travel rebound? Simply that people don't want
因此，当我看到机会时，还存在着巨大的机会，可能是在春
to go abroad? 末夏初的时候，旅行者可以更新签证，可以获得签证，去欧
洲和其他国家旅行并开始花钱。
Ben. Yeah. They definitely do want to go abroad. I think the
issue is really getting into the mind of the consumer and saying, Greg. 如果你指望旅行业复苏，那么像这样的公司面临的风
OK, they might buy A, but they might not buy B. And I think that 险是什么？简单地说，人们不想出国旅行吗？
has been challenging. It'll be challenging for investors, and it'll
just be as frustrating for the management teams. Ben. 是的。他们确实想出国旅行。我认为问题实际上是要进
入消费者的心态，看看他们可能会购买 A，但可能不会购买
If you're selling something that you put on a shelf, you never B。我认为这是具有挑战性的。对于投资者来说将是具有挑
want to have an empty shelf. But the risk in terms of supplying 战性的，对于管理团队来说也将同样令人沮丧。如果你销售
those products is you oversupply, and then you have to work 的东西放在货架上，你永远不希望货架上没有货物。但是在
through the inventory. No different than during the pandemic. 供应这些产品的风险方面，你可能会供应过多，然后不得不
We bought too much goods, then the supply chain got tight,
and then it got overdelivered and we saw companies have to 处理库存。这与大流行期间并无二异。我们购买了太多的商
discount. 品，然后供应链变得紧张，然后供应过剩，我们看到公司不
得不打折。所以这就是狂热的部分结束的地方。我们开始看
So this is the part where the euphoria is over. We're starting to 到尘埃落定，看到一些公司一直在努力。我们看到像雅诗兰
see the dust settle, and we're seeing some companies have 黛（Estee Lauder）或星巴克（Starbucks）这样的公司退缩了
been working. And we've seen companies like, let's say, an 一步。但是即使我们谈到工业和材料。所以我们认为-
Estee or a Starbucks that have taken a step back. But even we COVID 结束后，我们认为会有刺激。我们看到制造业活动相
talk industrials and materials.
对于预期有些平淡。我们看到像铁矿石这样的材料先上涨，
然后完全回撤和反弹。所以这涉及到所有领域。所以我可以
说，最初的浪潮，最初的狂热已经消退。持久的行业，我可
以说是航空航天和奢侈品。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE July 2023 Page 7 第7页