Page 17 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue

加中金融 市场展望 Market Outloo

近年来美国、欧盟、印度、韩国等国通过多次反补贴、反倾销、201、301、反规避等贸易手段遏制我国光伏产业发展。
2021 年 6 月以来，美国先后实施了 WRO 暂扣令，发布所谓的“涉疆法案 UFLPA”、推动世行等多家国际金融机构供应链
追溯，欧盟也紧随其后实施强迫劳动立法，韩国要求碳足迹认证等。为实现能源安全和独立，降低对中国新能源产业的依
赖，美国、欧盟、印度等国先后发布了《2022 削减通胀法案》（IRA 法案）、欧盟“欧 8 条”等各项激励措施，鼓励制造
业本土化。我国光伏行业面临日益严峻和复杂的国际贸易环境。

去年 12 月 30 日，商务部会同科技部发布了关于《中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录》修订公开征求意见的通知，拟将“光
伏硅片制备技术”纳入目录，引起媒体普遍关注和行业内的担忧。

相比人工智能技术 2016 年在 B 端相关应用落地，ChatGPT 所带来 C 端 AI 应用与每一个人的工作与生活息息相关。相比
OpenAI 在看不到前景和没有明显效果的大型语义模型上，早期非常坚定地做了投入并取得了突破性的成功。国内 AI 公司
过去更多将资源投入在人工智能视觉层面，百度和谷歌也面临着 AI 颠覆传统搜索业务商业模式的风险。人工智能的进步
增强了人类的思考、推理、学习和表达能力，拥有和不拥有这种人工智能技术的国家之间可能出现生产力的代差。

未来 AI 竞争除了人才竞争和资金投入的竞争，也是监管的竞争。目前并不是所有地区和国家的政策法规都允许使用
OpenAI 的产品服务。欧盟计划更新其即将出台的《人工智能法案》（AI Act）。国内《新一代人工智能伦理规范》只是提
出了一系列管理规范、研发规范和使用规范，但是距离系统和全面的人工智能监管法案还很远。

科技部近日表示，将把人工智能作为战略性新兴产业，作为新增长引擎，继续给予大力支持。一是推动构建开放协同的人
工智能创新体系，加快基础理论研究和重大技术攻关。二是推动人工智能与经济社会深度融合，在重大应用场景中锤炼技
术，升级迭代，培育市场。三是推动建立人工智能安全可控的治理体系。四是全方位推动人工智能开放合作。政治局第三
次集体学习时强调，加强基础研究，是实现高水平科技自立自强的迫切要求，是建设世界科技强国的必由之路。

3.四大有利条件助力高质量发展 前瞻正确的产业政策发挥重要作用

随着经济社会发展，我们积累了新的有利条件，面临新的机遇：

一是科技能力显著提高。2021 年中国 R&D 经费支出达到 27864 亿元，仅次于美国，居于全球第二位，占 GDP 比重提升至
2.44%，已接近经合组织（OECD）国家的平均水平。

二是超大规模经济体优势。从消费看，我国有世界最大规模的人口，城镇化率不断提升，国内消费快速增长。从生产看，
我国制造业规模全球第一，产业门类齐全，产业链相对完整，分工体系效率较高，应对全球经济波动和不确定事件的弹性
和韧性较强，具有较强的国际竞争力。

三是我国人力资本仍然具有综合竞争力。虽然劳动力成本持续上升，但劳动力质量也显著提升。

四是新能源产业、数字经济发展快规模大，尤其前者领先世界。

Four boosters for high-quality development

The 2022 Central Economic Working conference established the blueprint for economic development, with emphasis on the high-quality
development. The key issues include expanding domestic demand, prioritize recovering and expanding consumption, jump-start investing via
government direct investing and policy support, keep supporting exports, increasing modernization of modern industries, securing economic
circulation, and realizing industry upgrades.
In the 30 years before 2009, China’s annual growth averaged above 10%. Yet in the last few years it was hard to maintain 6% even in 2019, before
the pandemic. Clearly, there was a change in conditions that previously supported the fast growth. As China enters into higher income levels, the
growth rate will run into more headwinds. Of course we will also have other opportunities along the path of socio-economic development. There
are four boosters for China’s high-quality development:

Firstly, China’s technological capabilities are increasing. In 2021, China’s Research and Development expenditure was 2.79 trillion RMB, 2nd only
to the US. As a percentage of GDP, it was 2.44% which is close to OECD average level.
Secondly, China has a super-sized economy. From consumption perspective, China has the largest population with high urbanization rate and
increasing domestic consumption. From manufacturing perspective, China has the largest manufacturing capacity in the world across all products
with relatively complete industry chain and highly efficient specializations. This comprehensive eco-system of manufacturing supply chain gives
China strong global competitiveness.

Thirdly, China’s labor force still has competitiveness. While it’s true the labor cost is rising, but so is the productivity.
Fourthly, the new energy and digital economy industries are developing quickly and becoming quite sizeable. China’s new energy sector, for
example, is now making great strides. In the new energy vehicle sector, China sold 50% of global production in 2021. China’s renewable energy
sector also account for 76% of newly installed power generation capacity in 2022. The National Energy Bureau estimates that China’s wind and
solar power generation capacity by 2025 will double the 2020, and that the renewable energy new capacity will exceed 80% of newly added
capacities.

If we look at the history of energy utilization, we saw that it took about 300 hundred years for coal to replace wood as the main fuel; gasoline took
about 100 years to become the main source; and the next energy transition into new energy may take just as long. But with the global focus and
consensus on reaching carbon-neutrality, we may achieve the transition within 30-40 years. The best area for scalable and efficient new energy
will be the combination of solar energy and hydrogen storage. Indeed, we are eagerly waiting for industry standardization details and industry
policy support from the China government. New energy will be a crucial sector for the future high-quality development of the Chinese economy.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
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