Page 42 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue

协会动态 CCFA Event 加中金融

Fiscal and Monetary policy

To push down inflation, seven consecutive hikes and the latest, a 50-basis point
bump in December, has been implemented by The Bank. As the moderation in
Gasoline and food price, as well as homeowner replacement costs, we expect to
see price growth slowing down which will show the evidence that the Bank will
slowly bring its policy interest rate back down until it reaches the upper bounds of
the neutral rate, estimated to be 3%. However, the fiscal front will, in order to
avoid offsetting the impact from tightening monetary policy, remain an unwinding
of pandemic-era spending. Overall, government spending and investment is
expected to decline this year before returning to growth in 2024.

财政和货币政策

为了抑制通货膨胀，央行已经连续七次加息，最新一次是在 12 月份实施的
50 个基点加息。随着汽油、食品价格以及房主更换成本的缓和，我们预计价格增长将放缓。这预示了央行会逐渐将其政
策利率降至中性利率的上限，预计为 3%。然而，为了避免与货币紧缩政策的效果冲突，财政方面将持续疫情期间的逐步
削减支出方案。总体而言，今年的政府支出和投资预计会下降，继而于 2024 年恢复增长。

Housing market

With 400 basis point increase in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, Canada’s housing market was crushing, with the average home
resale price in October down more than 20% from its February peak. The housing market outlook is bleak over the next two years,
the residential investment, home renovation investment is expected to drop 7.9% and 6.5% respectively. The mortgage rates will
remain elevated until the end of 2023, preventing many prospective homebuyers from entering the market. However, the housing
market is anticipated to slowly start to recover in 2024 and 2025.

房地产市场

加拿大央行政策利率的 400 个基点上调导致了加拿大房地产市场
的崩溃 – 2022 年 10 月的平均房屋再销售价格比同年 2 月峰值下
降了 20%以上。未来两年，住宅投资和房屋翻新投资预计分别下
降 7.9%和 6.5%。房贷利率会保持在较高水准直到 2023 年底，这
将阻止许多潜在购房者进入市场。总体而言，房地产市场预计将
在 2024 年至 2025 年逐渐开始复苏。

Labor market

The business needs to balance the expected softening in
demand against a scarcity of labor, and the immigration
levels plummeting during pandemic, and surge of baby
boomers retire, the labor market is not expected to decline
overall.

劳动力市场

企业需要通过减缓预计需求来平衡劳动力短缺带来的影
响，才能在疫情期间移民水平快速下降以及婴儿潮一代
的退休潮来临的时刻，使劳动力市场整体不会下降。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
Page 42 第42页