Page 5 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 Macro Economy

It is important to understand that Silicon Valley Bank was 重要的是要了解，硅谷银行在最近的逆风中处于异常不
unusually poorly positioned to survive recent headwinds. 利的地位。小型科技公司在其存款人中所占比例过高。
Small technology companies constituted a disproportionate
share of its depositors. As the tech sector has suffered over 由于科技行业在过去一年遭受重创，资金枯竭，这些公
the past year, funding dried up and such firms were steadily 司正在稳步提取银行存款以维持生计。同时，硅谷银行
drawing down their bank deposits to remain afloat.
的贷款账簿相对较小，其资产中不成比例的高份额投资
Simultaneously, Silicon Valley Bank had a relatively small loan 于随着利率上升而贬值的固定收益证券。这些负面新闻
book, leaving a disproportionately high share of its assets in 引起了公众的注意，它在金融市场上筹集资金的努力失
fixed income securities that lost value as rates rose. As these
struggles came to the attention of the public, its efforts to 败了，储户提款速度加快，从而决定了银行的命运。
raise money in financial markets failed and depositors
withdrew their money at an accelerating clip, sealing the fate 虽然只有极少数小型美国银行遭受了类似的命运，但还
of the bank. 有许多其他银行在债券市场的敞口足够大，它们可能比
While only a tiny number of small U.S. banks have suffered a 平时脆弱得多。
similar fate, there are many others with sufficient bond
market exposure that may be considerably more fragile than
usual.

To prevent a wave of further failures, the U.S. government 为了防止一波又一波的失败，美国政府在周末出台了旨
stepped in over the weekend with new policies designed to 在阻止任何进一步蔓延的新政策：
stem any further contagion:
 存款超过$250,000的客户:尽管倒闭的银行通常会
 Whereas customers with deposits above $250,000 at
a failed bank are normally exposed to losses, the FDIC 面临亏损，但 FDIC 承诺可能会通过对更广泛的银
has promised that all Silicon Valley Bank customers 行业征收特别附加费来提供资金，确保硅谷银行
will get their money back, potentially financed by a 的所有客户都将取回他们的钱。这一特别行动的
special surcharge on the broader banking sector. This
special action was likely motivated at least in part to 动机可能部分是为了避免模仿银行挤兑，还因为
avoid copycat bank runs, and also because more than 美国超过一半最有前途的小型科技公司是该银行
half of the most promising small tech-oriented 的客户，而且其金额远高于保险限额。
companies in the U.S. were customers of the bank,  美联储还设立了一个名为银行期限融资计划的新
and had sums well above the insurance limit. 流动性窗口，允许美国银行以面值交换其债券以
 The Federal Reserve also established a new liquidity 获取现金，期限最长为一年。因此，即使这些债
window called the Bank Term Funding Program that 券当前价值低于 100 美分，美联储也将向银行借
allows U.S. banks to swap their bonds at face value for
cash for up to a year. Thus, even if the bonds are 出全额美元，使它们在一年内保持流动性并在技
currently worth less than 100 cents on the dollar, the 术上保持偿付能力。不过，融资成本相当昂贵，
Fed will lend banks the full dollar, keeping them both 并且使用此类流动性窗口会带来声誉风险，因此
liquid and technically solvent for a year. A catch is that 银行不会过分地利用它们。
the cost of funding is fairly expensive and there is
always a reputational risk to using such windows, so 结果是，尽管仍有可能发生进一步的银行挤兑，但可以
banks will not want to gorge excessively. 说美国政府已经做了足够多的工作来使这种结果变得不
The result is that, while further bank runs remain possible, the 合逻辑：绝大多数银行应该有足够的流动性来满足客户
U.S. government has arguably done enough to render such 的需求。
outcomes illogical: the great majority of banks should have
sufficient liquidity to meet their customers’ needs. 从经济角度来看，最近的银行倒闭显然对改善经济无济
于事。我们认为经济已经处于衰退轨道。现在，金融状
From an economic standpoint, the recent bank failures are
clearly not helpful. We believe the economy was already on a 况进一步收紧，经济中的风险承担可能会有所减少。因
recessionary trajectory. Now, financial conditions have 此，我们仍然维持我们长期以来的观点：即将到来的衰
tightened somewhat further and risk-taking in the economy 退会比大家共识的假设情况更加糟糕。
will likely diminish somewhat. As such, we remain content in
our longstanding view that the coming recession will be
incrementally worse than that assumed by the consensus.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
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