Page 8 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue

宏观经济 Macro Economy 加中金融

2023: Cycles and Changes 周期和变局

【作者】 洪灏，思睿集团首席经济学家 ，交银国际控股有限公司原董事总经理、研
究部主管。原中国国际金融有限公司执行总经理，首席全球策略师（北京、香港）

About the author. Hong Hao, Chief Economist of Grow Investment Group, Former Managing
Director and Head of Research Department of Bank of Communications International Holdings
Co., Former executive general manager and chief global strategist of China International
Capital Corporation (Beijing, Hong Kong)

最近一系列欧美银行暴雷，包括硅谷银行以及瑞士瑞信银行。暴雷的原因不太一样，硅谷银行的暴雷是因为手上美国国债
的投资组合，由于美联储加息，美债收益率上升，产生了巨大的亏损。因此，在集体损失的时候，硅谷银行资不抵债，大
家发现资不抵债立即去取钱。美国的监管不希望美国的商业和加密货币合作过于密切，因为加密货币是美元的对立面。瑞
信是资产规模达到 1.4 万亿美元的银行，瑞士国家银行出手相救，平息风波。

这三个事件，我相信大家都有跟踪，美国和欧美市场暴跌把香港市场也带下去了。香港恒指去年反弹了 50%之后，现在又
回到 1.9 万点左右。

我认为去年发生的这些事情，包括到现在还发生这些事情，是很奇怪的。一般来说，在避险情绪高涨，市场要找地方避险
的时候，美元的汇率是应该上升的，美元是应该走强，但是很奇怪的是，过去几天的美元反而是走弱的，尤其相对于人民
币或者是其他新兴市场的货币，居然是走弱的。

Recently, a series of European and American banks have collapsed, including Silicon Valley Bank and Swiss Credit Suisse Bank. The
reasons for these collapses are different. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed due to its investment portfolio in US government bonds. As
the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the yield on US bonds rose, resulting in huge losses. Therefore, when collective losses
occurred, Silicon Valley Bank was unable to cover its debts, and everyone immediately withdrew their money. US regulators do not
want commercial and cryptocurrency cooperation to be too close, as cryptocurrencies are the opposite of the US dollar. Credit
Suisse is a bank with assets worth $1.4 trillion. The Swiss National Bank stepped in to calm the storm.

I believe that everyone has been following these three events, and the stock markets in the US and Europe have also caused Hong
Kong's market to decline. After rebounding by 50% last year, the Hang Seng Index has now fallen back to around 19,000 points.

I think that these strange events that happened last year, including those that are still happening now, are very strange. In general,
when risk aversion is high and the market needs to find a safe haven, the exchange rate of the US dollar should rise and the US
dollar should strengthen. However, strangely, the US dollar has weakened in the past few days, especially relative to the yuan or
other emerging market currencies.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
Page 8 第8页