Page 6 - CCFA Journal - Tenth Issue

宏观经济 Macro Economy 加中金融

But it is not so much the base-case forecast that has 虽然基本情景预测并没有发生实质性的变化，但是围绕
substantially changed as the risks that surround the base case. 着基本情景的风险却有了明显的变化。可以很容易地想
It is certainly easier to envision a larger downside risk 象到未来银行业压力方面存在更大的下行风险，无论是
involving banking sector stress in the future, be it the failure 美国地方银行的失败还是某些易受影响的国际金融机构
of additional American regional banks or of certain vulnerable 的破产。总的来说，不论是主权债务、杠杆私人市场等
international financial institutions. More generally, rising 几乎每个领域的杠杆玩家都会受到上升的利率的惩罚，
interest rates punish leveraged players of nearly every 这可能会导致各种压力的出现。
description, including sovereign borrowers, leveraged private
markets, and so on. Stresses could emerge from any of these. 关于货币政策将如何应对这一最新冲击存在很多争论。
就在一周前，预期的轨迹是适度进一步收紧货币政策。
There is much debate over how monetary policy will respond
to this latest shock. The anticipated trajectory as recently as a 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔已暗示至少会进一步加
week ago was for moderately further monetary tightening. 息两次，并暗示可能需要采取更多行动来抑制近期强劲
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell had signaled at least two 的经济数据和顽固的通货膨胀。现在，市场质疑美联储
further rate hikes, and was hinting that even more action 是否会在接下来的两次会议上加息一次 25 个基点，然后
might be needed to tame recent robust economic data and 预计从 2023 年 7 月开始降息。
stubborn inflation. Now, the market is questioning whether
the Fed will deliver even one 25 basis point rate hike over the 对央行政策预期的突然变化似乎有些言过其实。当然，
next two meetings, and then anticipates rate cuts starting in 这种冲击会在一定程度上抑制动物精神，而已经收紧的
July 2023. 贷款条件无疑将对未来的增长造成更大的拖累。但通胀

The abrupt change in expectations for central bank policy 仍然过高，增长仍然过快，这些都需要收紧货币政策。
seems overblown. Certainly the shock will dampen animal
spirits to a degree and lending conditions, already tightening, 迄今为止，政府对银行业危机的反应看起来是可信的。
will no doubt become an even greater drag on growth going 因此，各国央行在执行紧缩计划时应比以往更加谨慎，
forward. But inflation is still too high and growth is still too 但此时不太可能降息。如果危机扩大，经济衰退加剧，
fast, and these things demand tighter monetary policy. The
government response to the banking crisis so far looks 央行典型的降息反应将危及近期通胀上涨，为未来几个
credible. Central banks should thus proceed more gingerly 月更加痛苦的紧缩创造条件，并最终导致更深层次的经
than before with their tightening plans, but rate cuts are not 济衰退。因此，未来不应该庆祝降息，即使降息真的来
probable at this juncture. Were the crisis to broaden and the
economic downturn to gather intensity a result, the typical 了。
central bank response of cutting rates would put at risk recent 核心信息是更高的利率减缓了通胀并削弱了经济，但也
gains on inflation, creating conditions for even more painful
tightening in outlying months and, ultimately, a deeper 暴露了金融体系的脆弱性。最后一个元素现在正在显现。
recession in the future. So rate cuts should not be celebrated, 我们对经济的基本预测比共识中的软着陆要软一些，现
even if they were to come.
在金融体系的压力表明下行风险可能超过意外上行的可
The central message is that higher interest rates slow inflation 能性。虽然相对谨慎的投资立场在短期内仍然是合适的，
and weaken the economy, but also expose financial system 但我们也指出，重大金融事件往往导致货币政策最终宽
vulnerabilities. That last element is manifesting now. Our base 松，经济活动触底，最终企业盈利和投资者信心复苏。
case for the economy has been a bit softer than the soft
landing embedded in the consensus, and now stress in the
financial system indicates downside risks likely exceed the
possibility of upside surprise. While a relatively cautious
investment stance remains appropriate in the near term, we
would also point out that major financial events often lead to
eventual accommodation in monetary policy, a bottoming in
economic activity and, ultimately a recovery in corporate
earnings and investor confidence.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE March 2023
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