Page 15 - CCFA Journal - 12th Issue

加中金融 Markets 市场观察

先锋领航第四季度市场展望

Vanguard Economic and Markets Outlook - Q4 Update

Bilal Hasanjee, CFA, MBA, MSc Finance，

先锋领航投资（加拿大）资深投资策略师

Bilal Hasanjee, CFA, MBA, MSc Finance

Senior Investment Strategist,

Vanguard Investments Canada

Economic outlook in brief

Generationally high inflation has led to the most rapid monetary tightening in recent history. We believe that central banks will
ultimately succeed in their fight against inflation but at the cost of recession in many economies. We maintain our baseline for
recessions across most major economies, but we have extended the timeline for the U.S. to 2024 as the full effect of Fed’s
tightening has yet to materialize.
With this context, Vanguard anticipates a deceleration in economic growth across major economies and regions, except emerging
markets, particularly China. In Canada, a 2023 GDP growth forecast of approximately 1% is associated with downside risks and the
potential for a mild recession in the first half of 2024. The U.S. is expected to achieve 1.8% growth in 2023, with the risk of
consumption declines driven by higher interest rates. For the Euro area economy, Q3 GDP fell by 0.1% QoQ, and we expect a
second consecutive contraction in the Q4 GDP, which will signify that the EU economy is technically in a recession.

With growth observed in the initial quarters, we expect full-year GDP growth of around 0.5% for the EU. In contrast, China’s
economy has experienced a modest rebound, thanks to policy support, and Vanguard anticipates an annual GDP growth rate of just
over 5% for 2023. Slowing inflation and economic growth in emerging markets (EM) have allowed their central banks to pause and
even cut interest rates. As a result, we have upgraded our 2023 EM GDP growth forecast from 3% to 4.3%.

A more in-depth economic outlook is available on our website.

概论

总的来说，高通货膨胀导致了近期历史上最迅速的货币紧缩。我们认为中央银行最终将成功抑制通货膨胀，但这将以许多
经济体陷入衰退为代价。对于大多数主要经济体，我们维持衰退的基准看法，但已将美国的时间表延长至 2024 年，因为
美联储的紧缩政策尚未完全显现出影响。在这个背景下，先锋公司预测，除新兴市场（尤其是中国）外，主要经济体和地
区的经济增长将放缓。在加拿大，2023 年的国内生产总值增长预测约为 1%，伴随着下行风险和可能在 2024 年上半年出
现轻微衰退的可能性。预计美国将在 2023 年实现 1.8%的增长，但受到高利率引发消费下降风险。

对于欧元区经济来说，季度国内生产总值在第三季度环比下降了 0.1%，我们预计第四季度国内生产总值将连续第二次收
缩，这将意味着欧盟经济在技术上陷入衰退。尽管在初季度观察到增长，我们预计欧盟全年国内生产总值增长约为 0.5%。
相比之下，由于政策支持，中国的经济经历了适度的复苏，先锋公司预计 2023 年的年度国内生产总值增长率将略超过 5%。
新兴市场的通货紧缩和经济增长放缓使得它们的中央银行能够暂停甚至降低利率。因此，我们已将 2023 年新兴市场国内
生产总值增长预测从 3%上调至 4.3%。（有关更详细的经济展望，请访问我们的网站。）

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE November 2023 Page 15 第15页