Page 17 - CCFA Journal - 12th Issue

加中金融 Markets 市场观察

市场展望

我们在投资上持有长期观点，并鼓励我们的客户也这样做。这是我们将年化回报率定为十年期的原因之一。 我们的十年
年化名义预期回报预测，截至 2023 年 9 月底，如下所示。

股票 债券（固定收益）

中位数平均 平均 中位数平均 平均
预期收益 波动幅度 预期收益
波动幅度
加拿大股票 5.3%-7.3% 17% 加拿大综合债券 4.3%-5.3% 5%
全球股票 4.6%-6.6% 19% 加拿大信贷类债券 5.3%-6.3% 6%
-加拿大除外
美国股票 3.6%-5.6% 19% 全球综合债券- 4.0%-5.4% 4%
加拿大除外
其他发达国 6.1%-8.1% 19% 美国综合债券（对冲） 4.1%-5.1% 5%
-北美以外
新兴市场股票 5.9%-7.9% 27% 美国国债（对冲） 3.8%-4.8% 6%
美国成长股 0.6%-2.6% 21% 美国信贷类债券 4.5%-5.5% 6%
美国价值股 4.5%-6.5% 21% 美国高息债券（对冲） 5.7%-6.7% 10%

美国大盘股 3.6%-5.6% 19%
美国小盘股 4.2%-6.2% 24%

表 1
加拿大和全球股票

由于市场对“较长时间维持在高位”的利率预期，第三季度加拿大和全球市场的股票价值出现大幅下降，我们仍然对股票
回报保持着积极的长期展望。截至 2023 年 9 月底，我们对加拿大股票的中位数 10 年回报预期在 5.3%至 7.3%的范围内，
比我们 2023 年中期估计高出约 0.5%，比 2023 年 1 月水平高出 0.7%。同样，对于全球股票（除加拿大外，不对冲），与
2023 年中期相比，我们的预测提高了 60 个基点，预计范围在 4.6%到 6.6%，与年初相比几乎没有变化。

加拿大和全球债券

对更高利率的预期是这一季度的主导情绪，导致加拿大和美国的收益率曲线上的收益率几乎平行上移了 25 到 80 个基点。
因此，截至 2023 年 9 月底，我们预计加拿大债券的中位数 10 年回报将在 4.3%至 5.3%的范围内，比我们在 2023 年 6 月
底的预测高出 80 个基点，比我们在 2023 年初的预测高出约 90 个基点。 同样，对于全球综合债券（除加拿大外，对冲），
我们现在预计中位数 10 年回报为 4%至 5%，比我们在 2023 年初和中期的估计高出约 80 个基点。

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CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE November 2023 Page 17 第17页