Page 12 - CCFA Journal - 12th Issue

Markets 市场观察
近日，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩宣布，将对来自中国的
电动汽车发起反补贴调查。欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）
过渡期实施细则也将于今年 10 月 1 日起正式生效。结合
2022 年美国的《通胀削减方案》和今年初欧盟的《净零
工业法案》草案，目标都是通过产业政策，兼顾碳中和
和经济发展，来提升清洁技术的本地产能，把绿色转型
和产业发展结合起来。
近年来中国品牌新能源车在欧份额快速提升，对欧洲本
土电动汽车发展造成一定冲击。中国汽车品牌渗透率从
2020 年的 3%上升至今年的 8%，Canalys 预计 2025 年比
重将提升至 16.5%。中国汽车整车出口从长期停留在总产
量的 5%以下，经过疫情三年的猛增，今年总量可逼近
500 万辆，为世界第一，出口比例接近各汽车主要出口大
国 20%的水平。
据测算，中国新能源车欧洲出口份额占出口总份额的
30%+（包括特斯拉中国），如果未来关税等贸易保护政
策实质性落地，可能倒逼国内车企出海欧洲布局产能。
同时，欧美贸易保护主义存在本质差异：汽车对于欧洲
国家属于支柱性产业，与民生强挂钩。
而传统能源还与美元等相关，与虎谋皮的政治意味更浓。
相比欧盟的贸易保护受益方包括所有本地经营企业，美
国更优先本土企业，会造成贸易关系的扭曲。政策层面
我们需要认真研究世界贸易规则，妥善处理贸易纠纷。
促进世界贸易发展、平缓贸易发展给局部带来的负面影
响，坚持长期主义，注意平缓对进口市场的短期冲击。
企业层面，尽快实施出口转型，由汽车产品出口向资本
和技术输出转型。
近日第十次中欧经贸高层对话在北京举行。双方承诺保
持双向开放，为对方企业提供公平、非歧视的营商环境。
双方同意共同维护和加强以世贸组织为核心、以规则为
基础的多边贸易体制，反对单边主义和保护主义。双方
同意构建稳定互信的产业链供应链，共同维护全球产业
链供应链韧性和稳定，反对“脱钩断链”。第三次中德
高级别财金对话在法兰克福达成 25 点共识。
鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 会议上的发言，重申 2%通胀的通
胀目标不变，根据未来数据决定政策路径，可能会采取
进一步加息。总体看，下半年中长期美债的供给并未显
著增加，对利率的抬升只是阶段性的。而通胀和就业数
据呈回落趋势，意味着美联储本轮加息周期很可能已结
束。同时，高利率也开始对美国的财政产生明显的付息
压力，进而对经济形成拖累，美债收益率大概率接近顶
部。
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Page 12 第12页
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Recently, European Commission President Ursula von der
Leyen announced that it will launch an antisubsidy
investigation against electric vehicles from China. The
implementation guidelines for the EU's Carbon Border
Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) transition period will also
formally take effect on October 1 this year. Together with the
US "Inflation Reduction Act" in 2022 and the EU's draft "Net
Zero Industry Act", the goal is to promote local clean
technology capabilities through industrial policies while
balancing carbon neutrality and economic development,
integrating green transformation with industrial development.
In recent years, the market share of Chinese branded new
energy vehicles in Europe has increased rapidly, posing some
impact to the development of local electric vehicles in Europe.
The penetration rate of Chinese auto brands in Europe rose
from 3% in 2020 to 8% currently, with Canalys forecasting it
will increase to 16.5% by 2025. Chinese auto exports, which
long stayed below 5% of total production, surged over the
past three pandemic years, with total volume approaching 5
million vehicles this year, making China the world's largest
exporter, with an export ratio nearing the 20% level of major
automotive exporting countries.
It is estimated that the market share of Chinese new energy
vehicles in European exports accounts for over 30% (including
Tesla China). If trade protection policies such as tariffs are
substantively implemented in the future, it may force local
automakers to accelerate overseas deployment in Europe. At
the same time, there are inherent differences between trade
protectionism in Europe and the US: automobiles are a pillar
industry closely linked to local employment and livelihoods in
European countries.
The 10th China-EU Economic and Trade High-Level Dialogue
was recently held in Beijing. Both sides pledged to maintain
two-way opening and provide a fair and non-discriminatory
business environment for each other's enterprises. The two
sides agreed to jointly maintain and strengthen the
multilateral trading system centered on the WTO and based
on rules, and oppose unilateralism and protectionism. The
two sides agreed to build a stable and trusted industrial and
supply chain, jointly maintain the resilience and stability of
global industrial and supply chains, and oppose "decoupling
and dismantling." The third Sino-German High-Level Financial
Dialogue reached 25 consensus points in Frankfurt.
In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell reaffirmed that the target
of 2% inflation does not change, and future data will
determine the policy path, which may involve further rate
hikes. Overall, given that the supply of medium- and long-
term US treasury bonds has not increased significantly in the
second half of the year, interest rate hikes are only stage
adjustments. Meanwhile, signs of declining inflation and
employment data imply that the current round of Fed rate
hikes is likely to end. At the same time, high interest rates are
starting to put obvious pressure on the US fiscal burden and
thereby drag on the economy.
November 2023