Page 9 - CCFA Journal - 12th Issue

加中金融 Markets 市场观察

A 股 8 月陆股通出现史上最大单月净流出（897 亿元）， After the record monthly net outflow of Stock Connect in
9 月继续流出。公私募仓位均较为谨慎。沪深 300 成交量 August, September continues to experience net outflows.
接近去年底，朱雀基金量化组统计，把每天换手相对恒 Positions held by market funds were generally reduced, with
定的量化成交去掉的话，还没到 2018 年的极端位置。 trading becoming more cautious. The trading volume of the
MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数目前的动态市盈率分别为 CSI300 index, adjusted for quantitative trading volumes, has
10 倍和 11 倍，较五年均值分别低 18%和 11%，与发达市 not yet reached the extreme low point observed in 2018. The
场和除中国以外的新兴市场相比，分别低 40%和 30%，均 forward P/E ratios of the MSCI China Index and the CSI300
处于历史区间低位。我们关注的行业角度，多数公司跌 Index stand at around 10 times and 11 times, respectively,
which are about 18% and 11% lower than their five-year
到了长期价值里面。
averages. These valuations are also 40% and 30% lower than
8 月数据显示国内经济触底。社销零售总额触底反弹，工 the averages of developed markets and emerging markets,
业增加值同比从 7 月 3.7%到 8 月 5.5%，前者代表了居民 excluding China. This places China's valuation at historically
端的消费好转，后者说明企业端收入和业绩好转。8 月份 low levels. In the industries we focus on, most companies
社融规模增量 3.12 万亿元，人民币贷款增加 1.36 万亿 have fallen below their long-term value levels.
元，同比数据均有所增加。CPI 也从-0.3%转正为 0.1%。 In August, Chinese data revealed signs of a turnaround in the
9 月份制造业 PMI，4 月份以来首次升至扩张区间，制造 domestic economy. Total retail sales hit a low point and then
业景气面有所扩大。 rebounded, while the year-on-year increase in industrial
added value rose from 3.7% in July to 5.5% in August. These
“确保完成全年目标任务”的基调下，当前的一揽子化 figures indicate a positive recovery for both consumers and
债政策后续会陆续推进，已经消除了地方政府债务风险 businesses. In the same month, social financing in August
无序发展引发较大风险的可能。但全国房地产开发增速、 surged by RMB 3.12 trillion, with RMB loans increasing by
商品房销售面积和销售额均继续下滑。“房地产供求关 1.36 trillion compared to the previous year. The Consumer
系发生重大变化”判断下，尽快调整优化过往限制性举 Price Index (CPI) also turned positive, rising from -0.3% to
措或已成为自上而下的现实选择。在此背景下放开限购 0.1%. Additionally, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers'
和降息降准，增加个人所得税抵扣额等减轻居民负担。 Index (PMI) for September saw its first increase since April,
后续降息还有空间但影响汇率。 entering the expansion range.

长期预期的改善还得看收入端。创业创新更是勇敢者的 Considering the impact of government policies, it is expected
事业，需要精神，更需要土壤。一切曾经以为是天赋的， that the Chinese economy will stabilize domestically in the
也随时可以被取走。 fourth quarter, especially with the presence of low interest
rates. Before the APEC meeting in November, China and the
4 季度经济在政策边际影响下有望周期性企稳，国内的利 US established three working groups, focusing on trade,
率水平维持低位，在 11 月 APEC 会议前，中美先后成立 economics, and finance. The anticipation of a rebound from
了涉及贸易、经济与金融领域的 3 个工作组，市场的超 extreme oversold conditions is well worth the wait. However,
跌反弹值得期待。但中长期决定股市命运的关键在于投 in the long run, the stock market's fate is determined by
资回报和法治环境。从这个角度思考，悲观也是一种力 investment returns and the rule of law. From this perspective,
量。数字化、全球化、能源变革……时代的力量不可逆 pessimism can also serve as a source of strength. The forces
转。 of digitalization, globalization, and energy transformation are
irreversible factors shaping our world today.
从优秀企业角度来看，对市场环境存在的不确定性已经
有了充分准备，财务和海内外产能建设等投入保持谨慎， Outstanding enterprises have taken comprehensive measures
战略上立足长期，建设自身的核心竞争力。科技创新力 to prepare for uncertainties in the market environment. They
度加大，叠加市场低迷和再融资控制，也是一种供给侧 maintain financial prudence and focus on both domestic and
foreign production capacity investments, establishing a solid
改革，有助于光伏、新能源车、半导体等领域过剩产能 foundation for long-term success by enhancing their core
出清，改变投资者预期。
competitiveness. Their dedication to strengthening
technological innovation, in the face of overcapacity pressure
from a weak market and financing constraints, serves as a
supply-side reform that can alleviate excess capacity and
reshape investors' expectations in industries such as
photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and semiconductors."

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE November 2023 Page 9 第9页