Page 23 - CCFA Journal - 12th Issue

加中金融 Housing Market 房地产市场

MoneyTalk: Can the Canadian housing market handle more rate hikes?

加拿大的房市能否承受更多的利率涨息？

主持人： Greg Bonnell, Host, MoneyTalk Live

嘉宾：Rishi Sondhi, Economist, TD

Greg. Canada's housing market appeared to be on the rebound 主持人 加拿大的房地产市场似乎在今年早些时候出现
earlier this year, but then the Bank of Canada resumed hiking 了复苏迹象，然后加拿大银行重新开始提高利率。当
interest rates. That's, of course, weighing on activity. Joining us 然，这对市场活动产生了影响。现在加入我们讨论房地
now to discuss the health of the housing market where things 产市场健康状况以及未来可能走向的是 TD 经济学家
may go from here is Rishi Sondhi, economist with TD. Rishi, great Rishi Sondhi。Rishi，很高兴再次邀请您参加节目。
to have you back on the program.

Rishi Well, thanks for having me, Greg. 嘉宾 谢谢邀请我, Greg.

Greg. So things have changed since the last time we were on 主持人 自上次加拿大银行暂停加息以来，情况已经发
pause at the Bank of Canada. You're seeing people take that as a 生了变化。您认为人们可能将这视为一个信号，也许是
sign of, perhaps, it's time to come off the sidelines, get in the 时候离开观望状态，参与房地产市场了。自那以后，我
housing market. We've had hikes since then. How are you 们已经有了加息。您如何看待这个市场？
reading this market?

Rishi Well, we've had a couple of months of hikes in June and 嘉宾 我们在 6 月和 7 月经历了几个月的加息，也有了
July, and we've had housing data in June and July. I would say on 6 月和 7 月的房屋数据。总体上，这些数据表明我们看
balance, it points to some resilience in demand that we're seeing. 到了一些需求上的弹性。我的意思是，在那段时间内，
I mean, sales are actually up a little bit over that time period 加拿大各地的销售实际上有所增加。除了安大略省和新
across Canada. And you're seeing sales rise in almost all 不伦瑞克省之外，全国几乎所有省份的销售都有所上
provinces across the country over that time period, with the 升，而这两个省份的销售在银行开始加息后有所下降。
exception of Ontario and New Brunswick, where sales are down
since the bank started hiking rates.

So I would say that there's been sort of an element of resilience 因此，我会说，我们看到了一定程度的韧性，对于利率
that we've seen come through in response to the rate hikes. And 上调的反应中我们看到了这一点。我们在销售中也看到
we're seeing that in sales. I mean, average prices are down, but 了这一点。我的意思是，虽然平均价格有所下降，但这
those can be influenced by the type of home that sold in a given 些价格可以受到在特定月份销售的房屋类型的影响。
month.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE November 2023 Page 23 第23页