Page 24 - CCFA Journal - 12th Issue

Housing Market 房地产市场 加中金融

Benchmark prices, which give a truer indication of the underlying 基准价格，这更真实地反映了潜在趋势，已经在这两个
trend, are up over those two months. So the market is still quite 月上涨。因此，当您查看每月库存供应等数据时，市场
tight when you look at measures of the month's supply of 仍然相当紧张。因此，我会再次强调，当您查看数据
inventory and the like. So again, resilience, I would say, is sort of 时，韧性似乎是一个潜在的主题。
an underlying theme that comes through when you look at the
data.

Greg. Yeah. When the Canadian Real Estate Association came out 主持人 是的。当加拿大房地产协会本周早些时候发布
with a report earlier this week where they sort of gathered all the 一份报告，他们在其中汇总了所有地区的报告，为我们
regional reports, put it all together for us in one picture, it was 呈现了一个整体画面时，值得注意的是有几个市场，我
notable that there were several markets-- Calgary, I think, 想加尔加里、埃德蒙顿等等，实际上显示出了一些强劲
Edmonton, and others that were actually showing some robust 的活动。然后，多伦多市的市场表现拉低了整体销售数
activity. And then it was Toronto that was weighing down the 字。这是否是因为多伦多已经是一个非常昂贵的市场，
overall sales number. Is that a function of the fact that Toronto is 可能对利率更加敏感？
already a very expensive market, maybe a little more sensitive to
interest rates?

Rishi Yes, definitely. I would say that's, for sure, the case. We're 嘉宾 是的，绝对是这样。我们确实在多伦多的市场上
seeing the intended impact of interest-rate hikes, really, in 看到了加息的预期影响。自 5 月以来，销售额下降了约
Toronto's market. Sales are down about 15% since May. Prices 15%。在多伦多和大多伦多地区市场，价格连续两个月
are down for two straight months in Toronto in the GTA market. 下跌。因此，这似乎是加息产生负面影响的地方。但正
So that's really where the negative impact of the rate hikes really 如您所说，卡尔加里则与其表现相反。自加拿大银行开
looks like it's coming through. But as you say, Calgary, Calgary is 始加息以来，卡尔加里的销售实际上上涨了 10%。
sort of on the opposite end of the spectrum with respect to how
it's performing. Sales are actually up 10% since the Bank of
Canada started hiking rates.

And there's a couple of other things that I would point to that 还有一些其他因素可以解释这一现象。首先，他们正在
sort of explain that. I mean, one, they're having this robust inter- 经历强劲的省际人口迁移。因此，有人主要是从安大略
provincial migration. So there are people coming from primarily 省来到艾伯塔省，以促进市场增长。
Ontario into Alberta to boost the market.

And you got to remember that heading into the pandemic, prices 而且您必须记住，在大流行前，艾伯塔省的房价正在下
were falling in Alberta. And they didn't go up over the course of 降。在大流行期间，艾伯塔省和卡尔加里市的房价没有
the pandemic run up that we saw. They didn't go up by as much 像其他地区那样大幅上涨。因此，市场仍相对有能力应
in Alberta and Calgary as they did in other jurisdictions. So the 对较高的利率，我们确实看到了这一点。
market is still relatively well positioned to handle higher interest
rates, and we're certainly seeing that come through.

Greg Calgary having its moment right now in the cycle. When we 主持人 卡尔加里目前正处在周期中的黄金时期。当我
talk about these higher rates and people are trying to figure out 们谈论这些较高的利率，人们试图弄清楚加拿大银行接
what the Bank of Canada is going to do next, what about 下来会采取什么行动时，那么建筑商呢？我是说，我们
builders? I mean, we keep hearing the need that we need more 不断听到需要增加住房供应的呼声。如果建筑商面临更
housing supply. If builders are facing a higher cost of financing, 高的融资成本，他们会不会开始暂停一些项目，直到弄
are they going to start putting some projects on hold until they 清楚接下来会发生什么？
figure out what's going on?

Rishi You hear about that on the margin, I would say. You do hear 嘉宾 我会说，在某种程度上确实有这种情况。我们确
that some groups are having some difficulty completing projects 实听说一些团体由于融资成本问题而难以完成项目。但
because of financing-cost issues. But I would say on balance, 总体而言，住房建设仍然相当强劲。昨天我们得到了住
housing construction is still quite robust. When you look at 房服务的数据。住房统计数据约为每年 25 万左右的年
housing services-- got that data yesterday. Housing stats were 化单位，这是一个巨大的数字，远远超过大流行前的趋
about 250,000 or so annualized units, which is a huge number 势水平。
and well above pre-pandemic trends.

So we're really still breaking ground on a significant amount of 因此，我们实际上仍然在大量的物业上开工，建筑活动
properties, near multi-decade highs with respect to building. So I 接近数十年来的高位。因此，我会说，或许在某种程度
would say that, perhaps, on the margin, it's having an impact, but 上，它会产生影响，但建筑商仍在继续着他们的项目。
builders are still doing their thing with respect to breaking 我认为其中一部分原因可能是价格水平非常高。因此，
ground on projects. Part of that, I think, has to do with the fact 价格水平如此之高，从某种程度上来说，底线受到了保
that the price level-- the level of price is so high. So the bottom 护。
lines are getting insulated to a degree by the fact that prices are
so high.

Greg I know that you co-authored a report with some of your 主持人 我知道您与 TD 经济研究的一些同事合著了一份
colleagues at TD Economics that came out near the end of July 报告，该报告于 7 月底发布，讨论了我们在加拿大看到
talking about the robust population growth we're seeing in the 的强劲人口增长。在标题上，很多人担心这对住房需求
country. On the headline, a lot of people worry about what that 意味着什么。这确实支持了房地产市场，但我们将从哪
means for housing demand. And that supports the housing 里获得这些住房单位呢？但我觉得这很有趣。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE November 2023
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