Page 25 - CCFA Journal - 12th Issue

加中金融 Housing Market 房地产市场
market, but where are we going to get the units from? But I
found it fascinating.

You really started digging into the demand side of it. More 您确实开始深入研究了需求方面的问题。国家有更多的
people in the country are going to pull some demand out of the 人口会拉动一些需求出来，这可能意味着利率必须保持
economy. Might mean that interest rates have to stay higher for 较长时间较高。如果情况是这样，从长期来看，房地产
longer. If that's what happens, what does the housing market 市场会是什么样子？在我在节目之外进行一些工作时，
look like longer term? The question I get from a lot of people 我经常会被问到的问题是，削减什么时候会来？削减什
when I do some stuff outside of the show is like, so when are the 么时候会来？我会说，我不知道。
cuts coming? When are the cuts coming? I say, I don't know.

Rishi Yeah. Yeah. Well, you hit the nail on the head, right? If 嘉宾 是的，你说得对。如果人口增长继续强劲，就像
population growth continues to be robust-- like last year, we saw 去年我们看到超过一百万人来到这个国家一样，如果人
over a million people come to the country-- population growth 口增长继续强劲，显然会在住房方面产生影响。根据我
continues to be strong like that, just obviously the impacts will be 们的基准情景估计，未来三年我们可能会短缺约 20 万
felt in housing. We estimate that on sort of our baseline scenario, 至 25 万套住房单位。
we could be short 200,000 units or so, 200,000 to 250,000 units
so over the next three years.

That number could swell to 500,000 if population growth is 如果人口增长非常强劲，这个数字可能会增加到 50
extremely robust. So that's one impact on housing. And now with 万。这是对住房市场的一种影响。至于利率，是的，因
respect to interest rates, yes, because, population growth is, as 为人口增长是一种经典需求冲击。这对需求施加了上升
the report calls, sort of a textbook demand shock. That's putting 压力。在这种强劲的人口增长环境下，与人口增长接近
upward pressure on demand. And in that environment of robust 其长期平均水平的情况相比，利率必须更高，以抵消需
population growth versus a situation where population growth is, 求，保持通胀可控。
say, closer to its long-run average, interest rates would have to
be higher to weigh against that demand and keep inflation in
check.

Greg Almost take us to a place where there's a higher, I guess, 主持人 这几乎将我们带到了一个更高的中性利率位
neutral rate, that place where central bank feels like we're not 置，也就是央行认为我们不是在刺激经济，也不是在试
stimulating the economy. We're not trying to tamp it down. I 图遏制它的地方。我认为人们在脑海中对过去 10 年或
think people have an idea in their head what they've lived 20 年里利率将会稳定在何处有一个想法。也许这不是
through for the past 10 years or 20 years about where interest 未来的现实。
rates are going to settle out. Maybe that's not the reality going
forward.

Rishi Yeah, I would say so, as I mentioned before, because of this 嘉宾 是的，我会这么说，正如我之前提到的，由于人
robust population. If it were to be maintained, again, interest 口增长强劲。如果这种情况持续下去，那么利率将不得
rates would have to be higher than relative to a situation where 不比我们看到人口增长更符合历史规律的情况下更高。
we saw population growth more in line with historical norms. I 我认为我们的中性利率预测大约是 2.5%。我需要检查
would say our neutral rate forecast, I believe, is around 2 and 一下，但我相信大约是 2.5%。因此，我们认为长期政
1/2%. I'd have to check, but I believe it's around 2 and 1/2%. So 策利率可能会稳定在这个水平。而且，这受到了人口水
we think the policy rate over the long run could settle around 平强劲的支持。
that level. And again, that's boosted by the fact that population
levels, population numbers have been strong.

Greg So these are some of the longer-term things we need to 主持人 这些是我们需要关注的一些长期因素，不幸的
take a look at as we, sadly, in the next couple of weeks, several 是，在接下来的几周内，我们将告别夏季，迎来秋季。
weeks, say goodbye to summer, head into the fall season. What 房地产市场会是什么样子？它是否完全依赖于加拿大银
is the housing market look like? Is it all going to be dependent on 行接下来会采取什么行动？
what the Bank of Canada does next?

Rushi Yeah. Well, the bank but also, more broadly, bond yields, 嘉宾 是的，银行，但更广泛地说，还有债券收益率，
right? So that's a function of the Federal Reserve, the economic 对吧？这涉及到美联储、经济前景等多种因素。因此，
outlook. So there's lots of things that influence bonds. Bank can, 有很多因素会影响债券市场。银行当然也会有影响。他
of course. They've hiked rates. They've done their 50 basis points 们已经加息了，已经进行了 50 个基点的紧缩。我们认
of tightening. We think they'll remain on hold for the remainder 为他们在今年余下的时间里将维持不变，但这些加息已
of the year, but those hikes are baked into the system, and 经反映在体系中，对需求产生了一些影响。
they're having some impact on demand.

Prior to this, demand was going quite robustly, and it has sort of 在此之前，需求一直非常强劲，但现在它已经有所减
petered out a little bit. So certainly, we're seeing some impacts. 弱。因此，我们确实看到了一些影响。此外，我们还看
Also, we've seen bond yields grind higher. And that's likely to put 到债券收益率逐渐上升。这很可能会对抵押贷款利率产
some upward pressure on mortgage rates, which, of course, 生上升压力，而这当然会减缓需求。因此，在我们的预
would slow demand. So in our forecast, we have, in the second 测中，下半年销售额会有所下降，价格总体上会趋于稳
half of the year, sales falling a little bit and prices flattening out 定，至少在像大多伦多地区这样的市场中会如此，然后
overall, at least in markets like the GTA, for example, and then in 在第三季度实际上会略微下降，然后在第四季度会有一
the third quarter and then actually dropping a little bit in the 些下降。
fourth quarter.
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE November 2023 Page 25 第25页