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面对疫情下的极大不确定性，近期政府工作报告明确提出今年 Facing the huge uncertainty of the global pandemic, the report on the
我国不再预设 GDP 目标，取而代之的是以就业等为代表的民生 work of the government points out that we will establish goals on the rate
of employment and other livelihood development index, rather than set a
指标。上述换“锚”之变，对于未来中国经济究竟意味着什么？
goal on GDP growth. What does the goal-shifting mean for the future
既定的逆周期政策能多大程度对冲内外需的压力，从而实现经
development of the Chinese economy? To what extend would the current
济新“锚”的目标？
countercyclical policy hedge the pressure on the demand inside and
outside of China, so that the new goals will be achieved?
1. 消失的经济增长目标？
1. 1. Vanishing targets for economic growth?
政府希望通过多种方法维护劳动力市场以及社会和民生的稳定，
有关部门未来将会出台一些新的措施拉动就业。事业单位、高 The government hopes to maintain the stability of the labor market as well
校扩招，以及企业、家庭纾困等综合举措都有助于缓解就业压 as the society and people’s livelihood through various means, and relevant
力，但这些对于实现全年就业目标仍不足够。初步测算，今年 authorities will introduce some new measures to boost employment in the
6%左右的调查失业率目标客观上隐含着 3%左右的经济增速要求。 future. The expanding on the admission of the public institutions and
我国要实现如此目标并非易事，特别是在全球经济预期负增长 colleges, as well as the rescue plans for the companies and families will
ease the pressure of employment, but these are far from enough for
的情形下。
achieving the goal of the year. The results on the investigate gives 6% of
the unemployment rate, which implies the requirements on the economic
growth being about 3%. It’s not easy for our country to achieve this goal,
especially under the condition where the economic growth is expected to
be negative all over the world.

图一 稳就业需要多少经济增长？
Figure 1. How much economic growth is needed to stabilize employment?
数据来源：WIND，笔者测算

2. 2. How large is the gap on the economic growth?
2. 经济增长的缺口有多大？
Recently, the number of the new confirmed cases is constantly dropping.
近期发达国家的新增确诊人数持续下滑，但从 Google 工作指数 But according to the working index given by Google, the resumption rate
来看，目前欧美国家的复工程度约为年初的六成左右，复产节 of working in Europe and in the US is about 6% of the rate in the
奏仍相对较慢。发展中国家的新增确诊人数还在加速扩张。4 beginning of the year, the pace is relatively slow. The number of the new
月份我国出口数据的逆势上扬与前期国内停工打乱了订单交货 confirmed cases is still growing fast in those developing countries. In
节奏相关，疫情的停工导致了部分订单堆积。观察海外疫情及 April, the growth of export under pressure and the previous shutdown
其停摆状况，4 月份的欧美 PMI 已创下十几年来最低值，我国 broke the delivery plans, which leads to an accumulation on pending
外需最坏的时候也许还未到来。近期航运等高频数据对此也有 orders. As for the shutdown overseas, the PMI hits the bottom over years,
所印证。 which means that the overseas market demand is not yet the worst. Recent
high frequency data such as shipping also confirm this.

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