Page 19 - CCFAJournal-FirstIssue

加中金融

展望未来，逆周期政策更多着眼于社会维稳而非经济刺激。尽 In terms of the demand inside the country, since the second quarter, the
管如此，鉴于疫情冲击的的复杂性和严重性，宏观政策仍有望 consumption inside the country is spontaneously recovering. Recently,
在政府工作报告所勾勒出的基础情形上逐步加码。新基建固然 the government established some policy, like sending away coupons, to
代表着新的方向，但从实际规模和带动效力来看，新型城镇化 stimulate the consumption. However, learning from experience of the
Asian flu in the US, flu in Hong Kong and the SARS in our country,
及传统基建更能挑起稳投资的大梁。
there is more likely to be a limit on the spontaneously recovering of
4. 基本结论 consumption. Different from other shocks, the effect of pandemics on the
people’s willingness to consume would be more long-lasting. On the other
一是事业单位、高校扩招，以及企业、家庭纾困等综合举措有 hand, the growth on the earning will also be affected. Thus, the growth on
助于缓解就业压力，但这些对于实现全年就业目标仍不足够。 the consumption is expected to be slow. In fact, the statistics on car sales
今年我国 6%左右的调查失业率目标其实隐含着 3%左右经济增速 and catering have showed this is happening.
的客观要求。要实现如此目标并非易事，特别是在全球经济预 4. Conclusion
4.
期负增长的情形下。
The expanding on the admission of the public institutions and colleges, as
二是纵观海外疫情及全球停摆，我国外需最坏的时候也许还未 well as the rescue plans for the companies and families will ease the
到来。4 月份出口数据的逆势上扬与前期国内停工打乱了订单 pressure of employment, but these are far from enough for achieving the
交货节奏相关，预计未来还将大幅下滑。国内居民消费短期内 goal of the year. The results on the investigate gives 6% of the
呈现出自发修复态势，但回升的可持续性仍受到居民收入和消 unemployment rate, which implies the requirements on the economic
费意愿等明显掣肘。 growth being about 3%. It’s not easy for our country to achieve this goal,
especially under the condition where the economic growth is expected to
三是当前逆周期政策更着眼于社会维稳而非经济刺激。尽管如 be negative all over the world.
此，鉴于疫情冲击的复杂性和严重性，未来政策仍可能在政府 Giving the circumstance of the global pandemic and the temporary pause
工作报告勾勒出的基础情形上逐步加码。新基建固然代表着新 all over the world, the oversea market demand is not yet the worst. In
的方向，但从实际规模和带动效力来看，新型城镇化及传统基 April, the growth of export under pressure and the previous shutdown
建更能挑起稳投资的大梁。 broke the delivery plans, which could be more severe in the future. The
consumption inside the country is spontaneously recovering in short term,
but the level of income and the willingness to consume will affect the
persistence of the growth.
For now, the countercyclical policy is more focused on the stability of the
society rather than stimulations on the economics. In spite of that, in terms
of the complexity and the severity of the pandemic, the policy established
by the report on the work of the government in the future will go further
and clearer. New construction is the new direction, but new urbanization
and the old form of construction are more reliable to invest.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE AUGUST 2020 Page 19 第19页