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加中金融
图二 外需冲击会有多大?
Figure 2. How big will be the external demand shock?
数据来源:WIND,笔者测算
内需方面,二季度以来我国居民消费开始自发性修复。虽然 In terms of the demand inside the country, since the second quarter, the
近期我国政府推行了消费券等一些列刺激消费的政策,但从 consumption inside the country is spontaneously recovering. Recently,
美国当年经历的亚洲流感、香港流感以及我国“非典”等历 the government established some policy, like sending away coupons, to
史研究发现,疫情后消费的这种自发性修复存在“天花 stimulate the consumption. However, learning from experience of the
Asian flu in the US, flu in Hong Kong and the SARS in our country,
板”。与其它冲击不同,瘟疫对老百姓消费倾向的影响显著 there is more likely to be a limit on the spontaneously recovering of
且持久,叠加居民收入增速也会受疫情影响而放缓,未来消 consumption. Different from other shocks, the effect of pandemics on
费的回升预计较为缓慢。事实上,从汽车销量和餐饮账单数 the people’s willingness to consume would be more long-lasting. On the
等高频数据来看,近期消费回升已现放缓势头。 other hand, the growth on the earning will also be affected. Thus, the
growth on the consumption is expected to be slow. In fact, the statistics
3. 如何弥补经济增长的缺口? on car sales and catering have showed this is happening.
鉴于外需下挫和消费受抑的预期,为实现今年的就业目标, 3. How to fill the gap in economic growth?
基建投资等仍需明显发力。政府工作报告指出,要重点支持
既促消费惠民生又调结构增后劲的“两新一重”建设,主要 Given the expected resistances on the overseas demand and the
是:加强新型基础设施建设,发展新一代信息网络,拓展 5G consumption inside the country, the investment on the industry of
construction needs to be strengthened, in order to achieve the target on
应用,建设充电桩,推广新能源汽车,激发新消费需求、助 the rate of employment. The government work report that priority will
力产业升级。初步测算,传统基建叠加新基建、旧改的合计 be given to new infrastructure and new urbanization initiatives and other
投资增速全年可能需要 15%以上。按照政府工作报告公布的基 major projects that not only boost consumption and benefit the people,
础情景(财政赤字率底线提高至 3.6%、新增专项债规模提高 but also facilitate structural adjustments and enhance the sustainability
至 3.75 万亿等),该政策力度可支持的政府投资增速约为 8% of growth. Efforts will be made mainly in the following areas: step up
左右,未来仍存在一些资金缺口。 the construction of new types of infrastructure, developing next-
generation information networks, expanding the application of 5G,
building more charging piles, promoting the new energy vehicles,
stimulating new demands on consumption and helping upgrade the
industries. By estimation, the growth on the investment over the new
infrastructure would be more than 15%. Based on the background given
by the report (deficit ratio increasing to 3.6%, new established bond
being 3.75 trillion), the policy will give approximately 8% of the speed
of growth on the investment of the government. However, a funding gap
would still be there.
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