Page 24 - CCFAJournal-FirstIssue

加中金融

在科创板去年 7 月 22 日即将开板运行一周年之际，即将迎来科 On the first anniversary of the operation of the Science and Technology
创板指数！ 6 月 19 日，上海证券交易所和中证指数有限公司 Board (July 22 last year), the Science and Technology Board Index will
宣布，将于 2020 年 7 月 22 日修订上证综合指数的编制方案， be announced soon. On June 19, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China
将纳入上市的红筹企业发行的存托凭证、科创板上市证券，并 Securities Index Co., Ltd. announced that they will revise the compilation
plan for the Shanghai Composite Index on July 22, 2020, which will be
将于 2020 年 7 月 22 日收盘后，发布上证科创板 50 成份指数历 included in the depositary receipts issued by listed red-chip companies
史行情，7 月 23 日正式发布实时行情。而之前的 6 月 12 日， and listed on the Science and Technology Board Securities. After the
证监会公布《创业板首次公开发行股票注册管理办法（试 market closes on July 22, 2020, the historical market price of the 50
行）》，同日，深圳证券交易所颁布修订后的《深圳证券交易 component index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange will be released, and
所创业板股票上市规则（2020 年修订）》，对创业板上市条件 the real-time market will be officially released on July 23. Before June 12,
进行修订，创业板注册制也呼之欲出！上交所和深交所相继对 the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the
指数编制和上市准入为中国版的纳斯达克的创新成长双翼的资 “Administrative Measures for the Initial Public Offering of GEM Stocks
本市场指数和融资环境迎来重大制度性红利！ (Trial)”. On the same day, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange promulgated the
revised “Shenzhen Stock Exchange GEM Stock Listing Rules (Revised
从证券化率占 GDP 比重来看，未来 5-10 年中国证券化率从当前 in 2020) )”, amending the listing conditions of the GEM, and the GEM
的 60%左右有望提升至国际市场分布的中位数 100%附近，股市 registration system is also forthcoming. The Shanghai Stock Exchange
总市值相比当前预期有翻倍的空间。首先，1）从基本面上看， and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have ushered in a major institutional
dividend on the index compilation and listing access for the Chinese
中国的消费升级及产业升级趋势可能仍在深化，支持新经济板 version of Nasdaq’s innovative growth wings and capital market index
块继续大扩容；其次，2）整体市场估值的压缩可能接近尾声， and financing environment!
未来股市及股指整体表现可能与盈利更加接近；3）资本市场
不断改革与开放，特别是注册制改革、对外开放等举措，正在 From the perspective of the proportion of securitization rate in GDP,
全方位改善股市生态，促进优胜劣汰和上量提质；4）居民资 China’s securitization rate is expected to increase from the current 60%
to the median of 100% of the international market distribution in the next
产配置可能更多配向金融资产的拐点也为资本市场做大做强创 5-10 years. The total market value of the stock market has doubled
造了有利条件。 compared with current expectations space. First, from a fundamental
perspective, China’s consumption upgrade and industrial upgrade trends
易会满主席在上个月刚刚结束的陆家嘴论坛上指出，中国的资 may still be deepening, supporting the continued expansion of the new
本市场正站在“新的起点，需要新的眼界、新的格局和新的胸 economic sector. Second, the overall market valuation compression may
怀。” be coming to an end, the future stock market and stock index as a whole
The performance may be closer to profitability. The continuous reform
3. 资本市场繁荣周期
and opening of the capital market, especially the registration system
本轮牛市行情令人不禁联想到 2014 年末开启的杠杆牛行情。相 reform and opening to the outside world, are improving the stock market
同的是，现在与当时同是货币宽松周期，贴现率下行驱动牛市。 ecology in an all-round way, promoting the survival of the fittest and
improving quality. The allocation of residents’ assets may be more The
监管周期也类似，均为金融监管市场化、资本市场改革积极推 turning point of aligning financial assets has also created favorable
进抬升风险偏好中枢，破除刚兑驱动实际无风险利率下行，股 conditions for the capital market to grow bigger and stronger.
票资产相对吸引力上升。但不同的是，盈利周期不同，对应货
币政策的预期亦不相同，当前货币政策保持宽松，但最为宽松 Chairman Yi Huiman pointed out at the Lujiazui Forum just concluded
的阶段已经过去，政策张力与定力并举，难以看到地产调控的 last month that China’s capital market is standing at “a new starting point,
requiring a new vision, a new pattern and a new mind”.
全面放松或超大规模的投资刺激计划，经济可持续修复，但强
复苏的可能性很小，风险偏好长期处于过热状态、杠杆资金大 3. Capital market boom cycle
面积入市难以重现。
This round of bull market quotes is reminiscent of the leveraged bull
market that opened in late 2014. The same thing is that the currency easing
cycle is now the same as at the time, and the downward discount rate is
driving the bull market. The supervision cycle is also similar, both of
which are the marketization of financial supervision and capital market
reform, which actively promotes the rise of risk appetite centers, breaks
down the real risk-free interest rate driven by the recent exchange rate,
and the relative attractiveness of stock assets. But the difference is that
the profit cycle is different, and the expectations of the corresponding
monetary policy are also different. The current monetary policy remains
loose, but the most loose phase has passed, and the policy tension and the
constant force go hand in hand, it is difficult to see the overall relaxation
of the real estate regulation or super large-scale Investment stimulus plan,
the economy can be repaired sustainably, but the possibility of a strong
recovery is very small, risk appetite has been overheated for a long time,
and large-scale investment of leveraged funds is difficult to reproduce.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE AUGUST 2020 Page 24 第24页