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加中金融

券商投行界被誉为“周期天王”的周金涛先生在 14 年前的一篇 The brokerage investment banking industry is known as the “king of the
研报《繁荣的起点并非沸腾的年代》如今再度火爆朋友圈。周 cycle” by Mr. Zhou Jintao, a research report 14 years ago, “The beginning
金涛先生曾在 2006 年的研报中阐述，中国或将在 2020 年代出 of prosperity is not a boiling age.” Now it is hot again in the circle of
现证券市场大繁荣，中国本土出现的新的技术革命或者能源革 friends. Mr. Zhou Jintao stated in a research report in 2006 that China
may have a great boom in the securities market in the 2020s. The new
命或将是主导下一次证券市场大繁荣的核心因素。出现大繁荣 technological revolution or energy revolution in China may be the core
需要有新的经济亮点、乐观主义蔓延和财富效应显现三个因素 factor leading the next big boom in the securities market. The emergence
来催化。 of a big prosperity requires three factors to catalyze new economic bright
spots, the spread of optimism and the emergence of wealth effects.
虽然疫情打乱了中国经济的节奏，拖累了今年的经济增速。但
是转型中依旧不乏亮点，这些亮点包括机构投资者近一两年热 Although the epidemic disrupted the rhythm of China’s economy and
议的以 5G 和新能源为代表的技术迭代和科技自主创新、资管新 dragged down this year’s economic growth. However, there are still many
规理财产品净值化之下权益类资产吸引力凸显、中国资本市场 bright spots in the transformation. These highlights include institutional
改革与对外开放催化下市场迅速扩容。 investors’ recent discussions on technology iteration and technological
innovation represented by 5G and new energy, and the attractiveness of
政府领导人对资本市场的重要地位已经相当重视，资本市场 equity assets under the net value of new financial management products.
“牵一发而动全身“！资本市场改革面临三大新形势，中国经 Highlights, the rapid expansion of the market under the catalysis of
济从高速增长阶段向高质量发展阶段，经济增长动力从过去的 China’s capital market reform and opening to the outside world.
要素驱动，债务驱动逐步向创新驱动转变，中国经济正经历转 The leaders of the government have attached great importance to the
型升级，结构优化的关键阶段。新旧动能加快转换，上市企业 important position of the capital market, and the capital market “brings
研发投入占比提升，都将为新经济增长提出了更大挑战，也为 the whole body into action”! The capital market reform is facing three
中国资本市场的战略地位寄予厚望！ new situations. China’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth
stage to a high-quality development stage. The growth momentum of the
中国经济进入新周期，中国的资本市场更需要迎头而上，成为 economy has shifted from the past factors-driven, debt-driven to
新时代下的中国经济发展的发动机和助推器！中国资本市场将 innovation-driven. The Chinese economy is undergoing a critical phase
迎来新时代的繁荣周期！这也是这波 A 股的牛市基础！ of transformation and upgrading and structural optimization. The
acceleration of the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, and the
increase in the proportion of R&D investment in listed companies will
pose greater challenges to the growth of the new economy and place high
hopes on the strategic position of China’s capital market!
As China’s economy enters a new cycle, China’s capital market needs to
rise head-on, becoming the engine and booster of China’s economic
development in the new era! China’s capital market will usher in a new
era of prosperity cycle! This is also the basis of the bull market for this
wave of A shares!

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE AUGUST 2020 Page 25 第25页