Page 4 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

宏观经济 MacroEcon 加中金融

China and Global Economic Outlook

中国及全球经济展望

Daniel Koldyk, Counsellor (Economics and Finance), Embassy of Canada to China

牛津大学博士，加拿大驻华使馆经济参赞，加拿大财政部驻华首席代表

(CCFA 志愿者 Michael Taryn 整理)

I'm planning to present a deck today about China's economic 这是一个关于中国经济前景的演讲。如你所见，中国在
outlook. As you can see from the image on the title slide that 2020 年表现得很好，但在 2021 年情况有些不同。随着因
suggests the outlook in China right now is a little bit on the 新冠疫情(COVID - 19)而投入经济的财政、货币等刺激政策
cloudy side, since it performed quite well in 2020. But in 2021 逐渐消失，下半年经济总体上出现了放缓趋势。进入到
it's been a bit different. The economy in general is beginning 2022 年，经济的前景预计将出现下降趋势。
to slow down in the second half, as the fiscal and monetary
stimulus that were brought into the economy because of 我今天讲三部分。首先是看中国的经济表现，我们将通
COVID have faded out of the economy. So 2022 and beyond is 过国内生产总值(GDP)的三个主要组成部分来分析:投资、
expected to be in a downward trend. 消费和净出口的具体表现，然后来预测一下前景，最后
来探讨一下需要考量的风险因素。
There'll be three parts to my presentation. The first is basically
looking at China’s economic performance, and we'll do that by 免责声明:这仅是我个人分享，不代表加拿大政府
going through the three main components of gross domestic
product (GDP): investment, consumption, and net exports. 目前的增长动力
We'll see what those categories are and how those buckets are 我们来比较一下中国经济和美国经济的差异。美国经济
performing. Then, I'll quickly get into the forecast, and then I'll 不是一个完美的基准，因为它可能过度依赖消费，但它
finish with some of the main risks that we need to consider.
非常接近基准。对中国来说, 私人消费是指花在家庭食物
Disclaimer: this deck is mine and they may or may not 和旅行上的钱, 只占经济的 37%, 这是非常低的全球标准。
represent those of government of Canada 相比之下经合组织的平均水平约为 60%。中国的不同之处

在于，它非常依赖于投资，投资约占 GDP 的 43%。对于
Current Growth Dynamics
美国来说，这一比例仅为 17%，而经合组织的平均水平在
For those who aren't used to thinking in GDP terms, you break 20 出头。典型的政府支出相当相似，而且中美两国的贸
it down these into four components. There are differences 易都很低。因为它们都是非常大的经济体，随着时间的
between the Chinese economy and the US economy. The US 推移，贸易对经济体占比减少但仍具重要意义，因为它
economy is not a perfect benchmark, because it probably over 们创造了就业机会并带来了投资。两国唯一的主要区别
relies on consumption, but it's pretty close to a benchmark. So 是按 GDP 计算，贸易对中国是正的，但对美国是净负的。
anyways, for China, private consumption, which is the money 这基本上表明中国倾向于有贸易顺差而美国倾向于有贸
spent by people and families and households on things like 易逆差。
food and travel, only makes up about 37% of the economy,
which is very low on a global standard as compared with the
67% in the US, and the OECD average which is about 60%.
China's difference is that it has a very strong reliance on
investment is about 43% of GDP, the single biggest bucket for
China. For the US it's only about 17% with the OECD averaging
in the low 20s. Government expenditure is fairly similar, and
trade is low in both China and the US. This is fairly typical,
because they're both very large economies, and trade over
time loses its significance to economies. But they're still very
important because they create jobs and bring in investment,
but they're still fairly low. The only main difference is that trade
is a net positive for China in GDP terms, but for the United
States, it is a net negative. So that basically shows that China
tends to have trade surpluses and the US tends to have a trade
deficit.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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