Page 8 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

宏观经济 MacroEcon 加中金融

The trade account is on fire 贸易账户急火攻心

So this brings us to the end of the first and second bucket. I'm 至此，我们讲了第一部分。我不打算讨论政府开支，因
not going to go into government expenditure, because it is a 为这有点超出我的权限，但我在这里要讨论的最后一个
little (out of my jurisdiction), but the last item I'll discuss here 问题是贸易。与投资和消费不同，贸易一直表现良好。
is trade. Trade – unlike investment and consumption – has 我估计，到 2022 年，中国将有大约 60 亿美元的贸易顺
been doing well. It's outperformed on a month-to-month basis 差，相当于其 GDP 的 4%以上。这里要记住的另一件事是，
when there was a small deceleration immediately after COVID. 尽管贸易在中国 GDP 中所占的份额很小（大约只有 2.6%
My estimate for 2022 is that China will have about $6 billion in 左右）但它有助于解决失业等问题，因为很多制造商需
trade surplus, which is worth more than 4% of its GDP. The 要雇佣人手来满足需求。
other thing to keep in mind here is that even though trade
represents a fairly small share of Chinese GDP – just about 2.6% 前景预测
or so – it helps with things like unemployment because a lot of
the manufacturers need to hire people to keep up with 目前来说唯一利好就是我提到的贸易顺差。我们看到的
demand. 其他类别都是逆风。持续时间， 以我的猜测这些不利因
素大多是中长期的。房地产价格很可能主要是短期的，
Forecast: Tallying the scores 因为我不认为中国房地产存在根本问题，我知道当谈到

There's only one tailwind right now and that's the trade surplus 价格时，可能是供过于求。还有人口问题需要考虑，但
that I mentioned. All other categories we're seeing are 我认为随着投资减速，新项目的数量也会减少，这应该
headwinds. I think most of these headwinds are medium term 会对价格产生向上的影响，因为即使供应减少，需求仍
and long term in nature. Real estate prices are likely going to 然存在。新冠病毒在中国得到了很好的控制，不知道
be mostly short term, as I don't think there's a fundamental Omicron 对后疫情的影响。
problem in real estate in China, and I know when it comes to
prices that is probably an oversupply. There are demographic 每个月彭博社都会对大约 6070 位经济学家进行调查，他
problems to think about, but I think as investment decelerates, 们会对未来 8 个季度左右的中国经济形势做出预测。人们
the number of new projects will decrease also which should 普遍认为，中国的 GDP 在下个季度将继续减速，然后将
have an upward impact on prices because demand will still be 在 5%左右的区间反弹。乐观主义者认为这个数字要高得
there even if supply decreases. COVID is well contained in 多，大约在高个位数，而悲观主义者认为这个数字在 5%
China, but we really don't know where things are right now and 左右。
with the Omicron afterwards.
另一个因素是，中国政府领导层心目中 GDP 增长的新下
Every month, Bloomberg does a survey with about 6,070 限是 5%左右。要达到这 5%的目标，问题在于他们是否需
economists who provide forecasts for where they believe the 要推出更多的刺激措施。这是一个开放性问题，如果有
Chinese economy is going to be over the next 8 quarters or so. 人感兴趣，我们可以持续讨论。
The consensus is that China’s GDP will continue to decelerate
in the next quarter, and then it'll bounce around in the mid 5% 下行风险
range. The optimists see that being much higher, around mid 显然，最大的政治风险是中美关系。关于人权和新疆供
to high single digits, and the pessimists see around 5%.
应链问题有很多担忧。这些问题不会消失，它们会一直
Another factor is that the new floor for GDP growth in the 存在，它们肯定会对预测产生影响。
party leadership's mind is ~5%. To achieve that 5%, the 还有监管风险。中国有很多监管方面的变化，涉及从经
question is whether they need to release more stimulus or not.
That's an open question, we can get into that later if anybody's 济表现到各个方面。在金融领域，人们确实有兴趣和努
interested. 力将资金引入实体经济，而不仅仅是投机性投资。此外，
社会公正是当前的首要任务，也是中国共同富裕理念中
Downside risks prevail 最大的例子。

Obviously the biggest political risk is China-US relations.
There's a lot of concerns around human rights and Xinjiang
supply chain issues. These issues are not going anywhere,
they're going to be around and they definitely have an impact
on that forecast well.

There is also regulatory risk. Slide 25 shows a list of regulatory
risk in China right now, the column on the left shows some of
the main sectors that are impacted by regulatory turbulence
recently. There are a lot of regulatory changes in China and
they range from everything from economic performance. In
financials, there is a real interest and effort to try and channel
money into the real economy rather than just speculative
investment. Also, there's social justice which is a clear priority
right now and the biggest example in China’s common
prosperity philosophy.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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