Page 7 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 MacroEcon

Consumption activity is soft and struggling caps and Chinese health care plans are not going to protect
them. And then pensions, the Chinese pension system is
Consumption, as I said, in most OECD economies drives an building, but it still has quite a long way to go, so people need
average of about 26% of GDP, in the United States close to 70%, to save for their retirement. And the socio-economic inequality,
but in China it's under 40%, but still very important of course. it's a well known fact that has it has a very strong impact on
And so with this chart here in slide 14, shows you the retail consumption because majority of the very wealthy people who
sales research. Just like fixed asset investment is the main own most the savings – even after buying a nice car and some
indicator for investment in the share of GDP, retail sales is one bags – put most of their money into investments or in personal
of the main leading indicators for consumption impact on GDP. savings whereas poorer people spend a disproportionate
The actual sales in December 2019, which is good, but well share of their take on their paycheck or their take on things
down from their pre-COVID trend. And if you want to calculate which are a lot smaller so they just spend less.
that in dollar terms on a monthly basis, retail sales are down
about $65 billion as of October. So that obviously has a big 消费活动艰难
impact on GDP. The main reason is COVID. COVID has been
controlled very effectively in China, there's very little of it. And 正如我所说，在大多数经合组织经济体中，消费平均占
peaks are all below 200 new cases a day. In a country of 1.4 GDP 的 26%，在美国接近 70%，但在中国这一比例低于
billion, that's pretty much invisible. 40%，但仍然非常重要。就像固定资产投资是投资占 GDP
比重的主要指标一样，零售也是消费对 GDP 影响的主要
But there are two things to keep in mind here. One is that since 领先指标之一。实际销售额超过了 2019 年 12 月的水平，
the Delta outbreak, the number of days between outbreaks 这很好但还是远低于 covid 之前的趋势。如果按月以美元
has fallen from about 109 to 38, so the amount of time 计算的话，10 月份的零售额下降了大约 650 亿美元。这
between outbreaks has decreased. The other thing to
remember is that even while the cases are low, it's a front 显然对 GDP 有很大影响。主要原因是新冠疫情。新冠病
page news story every day in China, since you're always 毒在中国得到了非常有效的控制，数量很少，尤其是最
thinking about COVID, and that's because of enforcement 近，峰值都在每天 200 个新病例以下。在一个拥有 14 亿
mechanisms and regulations that come in to prevent travel. 人口的国家，实属罕见。

I'm in Beijing right now and I cannot leave because the 但这里有两件事需要记住。一是自从 Delta 爆发以来，爆
regulations to re-enter Beijing have become so stringent. If you 发之间的天数从 109 天减少到 38 天，所以爆发之间的时
leave and go to a city, and if there's one single case reported 间减少了。二是即使病例很少，在中国都是每天的头版
in that city, you're not allowed to re-enter Beijing until 14 days 新闻，触发旅行的限令。我现在在北京不能离开，因为
after the last reported case in that city. People basically aren't 重新进入北京的规定变得非常严格。如果你去一个城市，
taking the subways like they used to back in 2019 as compared 该城市报告了一个病例，你将不能再进入北京，直到清
with 2020. And then box office, where people have stopped 零后 14 天。这些都对消费者行为有很大影响。人们基本
going to movie theaters as frequently as they did in the past. 上不像 2019 年那样乘坐地铁了，也不再像过去那样经常
Domestic air passenger numbers are way down, as shown that 去电影院了。
the actual traffic in September 2020 is like the 2017 level, 国内航空乘客数量大幅下降，疫情以来一直在下降，至
where it’s fallen since COVID. And it hasn't recovered and still 今尚未恢复。这也可以理解，因为现在旅行可能有点冒
doing poorly, which is understandable because traveling right 险，你可能会被突然困在一些地方，这对家庭来说是一
now can be a bit risky because you can get stuck in places, and
that is a big issue for families. Air travel numbers are down 个大问题。航空旅行人数下降了近 50%，航空业遭受了相
almost 50%, compared to its brief upward trend so the airline 当严重的打击。当然，这也对旅游业影响很大，虽然从
industry is suffering quite heavily. This has a big impact on 新冠初期水平反弹，但与之前认为的趋势相比仍然下降
tourism, of course. Same idea we're back to where we were at 显著。
the beginning of COVID, but we're still down big compared to 还有其他原因，比如房地产价格和其他长期结构性问题。
the pre call that trend,
如果你住在中国的一线城市，房价实际上已经高到超出
Then there are the other reasons like real estate prices and 了中低收入家庭的承受范围。在北京，你要花几年的时
other long term structural problems. If you live in one of 间来支付基本的抵押贷款，这是相当惊人的。房价上涨
China's tier one cities, real estate has effectively become so 也影响了二、三线城市，甚至四线城市。所以人们基本
high that they're beyond the bounds of low and middle income 上都存了很多钱，希望有一天能买到房子。还有其他结
families. The amount of years it takes to basically pay your 构性因素——教育、医疗、养老金和贫富差距。在教育
mortgage in Beijing now is really quite dramatic. The price 方面，我认为中国的教育体系是很好的，但是家长仍然
increases also affects tier two, tier three cities, and even tier 认为他们的孩子需要额外的教育才能在标准化考试中取
four cities. So people basically save a lot and live with the hope 得好成绩。在医疗系统方面，中国在日常医疗方面做得
to be able to buy a house one day. There are other structural 很好，但在重大疾病方面，中国还有很长的路要走。很
factors as well -- education, health care pensions and equality. 多人担心最终会感染癌症等严重疾病。低福利上限和中
On education, I think the Chinese education system is quite
good, but parents still believe that their children need extra 国的医疗保健计划不会保护他们。还有养老金，中国的
education in order to do well in the standardized exams. And 养老金制度正在建设，但还有很长的路要走，所以人们
healthcare systems, China is quite good for routine everyday 需要为他们的退休生活存钱。社会经济的不平等贫富差
healthcare, but when it comes to critical illnesses, China has a 距，这是一个众所周知的事实, 它对消费有很强的影响。
long way to go. A lot of people are concerned about eventually 大多数富有人群拥有大量储蓄用来购买一辆好车和奢侈
contracting a major critical illness like cancer. The low benefit 品包包，要不然就是大手笔投资钱生钱， 而穷人的薪水
比例不足做奢侈的消费，这样他们就会花更少的钱。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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