Page 10 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

宏观经济 MacroEcon 加中金融

Obviously one of the things that drove markets higher was the 让我们看看 2021 年的情况，2021 年是建立在 2020 年异
huge amount of monetary stimulus. Also, depending on your 常增长的基础上的。对于股票和期权业务，以及跨境个
country, there was a fair amount of fiscal stimulus as well. In 人投资而言，这是一个巨大的飞跃。在我的职业生涯中，
America, most Americans get cheques – essentially a deposit 个人投资者从未像现在这样投入市场，我能想到的唯一
in their bank account, and a lot of that found its way into 的例子是在 90 年代末。当我们思考为什么我们在 90
equities. We come to the situation where you can pretty much
write off fiscal policy. Yes, there's a build back better bill going 年代后期看到这种情况时，那是因为通过网络交易使得
through the U.S. but it's not going to have anything near the 投资自主化成为可能，那时人们可以在日常交易中省去
same sort of impact fiscally, so we'll just take that off the table. 中间人，由专业人士在各个层面提供帮助。基本上消除
了人们打电话给股票经纪人，然后经纪人会打电话给交
Of course, the monetary situation is going to change, we have
been told this multiple times by various central banks, and one 易所的大厅进行日常交易。这种竞争也压低了佣金，而
of the old fed chairs was a guy named William Chesney Martin. 佣金本来占很大比例。第三件事是互联网。我们在美国
One of the things that he said was, it's the role of central 有自由佣金交易的能力。期权业务已经在急剧增长，我
bankers to take away the punch bowl, just as the party gets 们开始看到在美国和其他地方提供部分股票。这是向前
going. Now, the world central banks have left the punch bowl 迈出的一大步，个人投资在很大程度上实现了自由民主
on the table, long after the party kept going, they kept refilling 化。
it, even after the party there was a certain level of financial
intoxication in the marketplace. But now they have told you 随后，新冠疫情爆发，震惊了全球市场。世界各地的央
that this is not going to be the case in 2022. The Fed has told 行都在做他们需要做的事，即向市场注入流动性，许多
us that, first of all, they are not going to keep refilling the punch 政府开始向个人发放支票。人们发现自己无事可做，依
bowl, they're going to taper their bond purchases. So, that 赖互联网与世界其他地方保持联系。因此，这成为零售
metaphorically was filling the punch bowl constantly: 120 交易兴趣的爆发。在加拿大和美国看到期权业务的巨大
billion dollars a month in bond purchases, that's slowing. So as 增长。在美国，没有大型体育赛事和体育博彩产生巨大
of now it's 105, because we had the first month's growth. And 的影响。我认为很多个人投资者意识到，体育博彩和期
now, next week, this coming week, the Fed is going to be 权投机的回报结构非常相似。如果我花 2 美元赌一匹马，
meeting, and they made it crystal clear that they are going to 结果是 4 比 1 赔率我很可能输掉这 2 美元，但如果我赢
accelerate the pace of tapering, which means that they're 了，我就赢了。这是一个类比，非常受欢迎的就是看涨
going to slow that down by something greater than 50. Instead 期权，由于市场不断走高，大量刺激资金流入市场。你
of going 121 or 105 etc, They may start to go at 90 in December. 开始看到的是，如果我以 1 美元买入一只看涨期权，而这
So, that is really that really becomes a big difference. And what 只股票朝我认为的方向走，我可能会赚 4 到 5 美元。大多
that also means is that if the Fed stops tapering, they will start 数期权到期后毫无价值，但对很多人来说都是赌马同样
to raise interest rates.
的心态。很多人看涨股票就开始购买这些股票和看涨期
Again, at this point, it's really not a question of whether they'll 权，AMC，黑莓这些都被社交媒体炒作的散户热门股。
raise rates, it's a question of when they'll raise rates. And the 现在只有让时间做功，这是一个自然的结束。这让我们
same goes for so many of the G7 central banks. It's not a 看到了现在的情况，指数上看市场处于或接近历史高点，
question of whether, it's actually a question of when the year, 个人投资者活动在过去两年出现了显著增长。
the European Central Bank is probably likely to be the laggard,
Bank of England was probably furthest ahead on the curve, 显然，推动市场走高的因素之一就是大量的货币刺激。
Bank of Canada, was vying for buying for most aggressive. 此外每个国家也出台了相当数量的财政刺激。在美国，
大多数美国人都得到支票——本质上就是银行账户上的
But that is the situation. Many investors have never really seen 一笔存款，其中很多都流入了股市。
a tightening cycle. Think about it, the last tightening cycle that
we saw was prior to the global financial crisis 2007, 2008, 2009, 当然，货币形势将会改变，我们已经被许多央行告知过
bear this in mind, there have been a couple of attempts. Yes, 很多次了，美联储的一位老主席名叫威廉·马丁。他说
there were some periods where the Fed raised rates and 过，央行的角色就是在派对开始时，把大酒钵拿走。现
backed off. There was the taper tantrum, where the feds 在世界各国央行已经把大酒钵留在了桌子上，在派对继
stopped buying bonds and markets freaked out. But you 续进行很久之后，大酒钵还在被继续斟满，甚至在派对
haven't actually had a sustained tightening cycle where the 结束后，市场上出现了某种程度的金融陶醉。但现在央
banks that were the banks have really systematically tried to 行告诉你，2022 年不会是这样。美联储告诉我们，首先
reduce their balance sheets for the better part of 15 years now. 他们不会再往大酒钵里续酒，甚至他们会拿走它 - 缩减债
As I said, there have been some periods, but they've always 券购买。每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买正在放缓。美联储
been many central banks that have gotten a little gun shy. And
this is, at a minimum, it's likely to cause volatility. I think we've 会议非常明确地表示将加快缩减购债的步伐，这也意味
gotten very used to the idea of steadily rising markets, and that 着，如果美联储停止缩减购债规模，他们将开始提高利
every dip is a buying opportunity. So let's say for example if you 率。
started investing in you know about 18 months ago. You've 在这一点上，问题不是他们是否会提高利率，而是他们
never seen a market where you shouldn't have bought the dip, 什么时候会提高利率。七国集团(G7)的许多央行也是如此。
it's rare to find foolproof strategies, obviously doesn't work on 问题不在于今年欧洲央行(ecb)是否可能落后，而在于今
all stocks.
年什么时候，英国央行(Bank of England)可能领先得最远，
加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)竞相购买最激进的股票。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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