Page 14 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

宏观经济 MacroEcon 加中金融

需要特别指出的是，即使没有过去一年严厉的房地产调控，房地产行业也会趋势性下行，背后有几个原因。

 一是 2015-2018 年的货币化棚改极大透支了中国低线城市的住房需求，消耗了大量居民储蓄，大幅提高了居民的
杠杆率。虽然由于人口流动，大城市的住房需求还很高，但供应有限以及价格高企，限制了居民尤其是新移民的
购房能力。
 二是货币化棚改直接导致众多房企尤其是民营房企的高周转模式和高杠杆率，有些房企甚至大量从境外借债，但
本身又不具备赚取外汇的能力。这种高杠杆模式是不可持续的，终究会被迫去杠杆。
 三是中国人口结构发生较大变化，年轻人口的绝对数量在快速降低，在 2014-2019 的短短六年间，中国 20-35 岁
人口数量降低 8.3%，未来还会加速下降，这必然也会降低住房需求。

从短期来看，房地产市场是一个资产市场，一旦市场的预期改变，要调整回来是较为困难的。根据中指数据，元旦期间重
点监测城市新建商品住宅成交面积较 2021 年同期下降 42%，购房者观望情绪浓厚，置业信心仍不足。而新房销售占房企
融资的一半，因此尽管央行等监管部门已经引导银行放松对房地产行业的信贷，房企融资仍然非常艰难。这反过来又导致
银行普遍对房企开发贷款持谨慎态度，也导致地方政府纷纷收紧预售款管理，防止资金外流。债券市场上，2022 年上半
年房企还本压力显著加大，尤其在境外美元债市场上，到期量将成倍上升。最后，根据我们的估算，春节前民营房企和其
相连的建筑企业需支付一万亿元左右的建筑农民工工资，这也会导致这些房企资金链的高度紧张。
Even without the strict real estate regulations imposed in the past year, the market would still see a steady decline.

• First, The 2015 to 2018 monetized shantytown reform greatly overdrew the housing demand in China’s low-tier cities,
consumed a large amount of residents’ savings, and greatly increased the leverage ratio of residents. Although housing demand in
big cities is still high due to population mobility, limited supply and high prices limit the ability of residents, especially new immigrants,
to buy housing.

• Second, the monetized shantytown reform has directly led to the high turnover model and high leverage ratio of many
housing companies, especially private housing companies. Some housing companies even borrowed a lot from overseas, but they did
not have the ability to earn foreign exchange. This high leverage model is unsustainable and will eventually be forced to deleverage.

• Third, China’s population structure has undergone major changes. The absolute number of young people is rapidly decreasing.
In the short six years from 2014 to 2019, the number of China’s population aged 20-35 decreased by 8.3%, and the decline will
accelerate in the future. Reduce housing demand.
In the short term, real estate is being treated as a liquid asset but a price reversal is difficult to achieve once the market sentiments
change. According to the data from the China Index, the transactions of new buildings in key cities on New Year’s Day decreased by
42% compared to 2021. New home sales account for half of the financing of real estate companies, but financing for housing
companies is still difficult despite regulators directing banks to ease credit. This led banks to be cautious about underwriting loans
and caused local governments to tighten the management of pre-sale real estate funds to prevent capital outflows. The bond market
will put pressure on these real estate firms to repay the loans in the first half of 2022. The cost of wages would also weigh on these
firms’ balance sheets as they are expected to pay up to one trillion yuan before the Chinese New Year, further risking their financial
health.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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