Page 19 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 MacroEcon

具体说来，针对各类型的经济下行压力，财政方面，应该加大支出力度，拿出真金白银去补贴受疫情严重影响家庭和中小
微企业。

加快有合理回报的基建项目的开工和建设，中国还是一个中等收入国家，城市化还有很长的一段道路，基建不分新老，关
键看回报，因此要优先考虑人口流入的中心城市和城市群的基建。对于人口流出地区的中小城市，应该在强调政府节支的
同时，适度加大补贴政府日常必要开支和当地民生，不能大搞没有实际价值和用途的基建。

稳外贸方面，过去两年人民币升值较多，因此储备了一些宽松空间。我们认为央行可适度加大购汇力度，这样既可以抑制
人民币升值，又可以补充央行外汇储备从而稳定外资对中国境外债务的信心，甚至还可以释放人民币流动性，节约降准空
间。

房地产方面，给定当前经济下行的风险，与其最后被动放松甚至再度大幅刺激房地产行业，还不如在坚持房住不炒的基本
原则下，以供给侧改革的思路，市场和公共保障并举，让房地产行业软着陆。短期内，央行和其他金融监管部门要高度关
注因为房地产行业下行所带来的金融风险，不能让恐慌过度蔓延。出台政策鼓励银行维持开发贷的合理增长和避免无序抽
贷断贷是当务之急。长远来看，应该以推进要素市场改革的思路，以改进房地产调控为契机，优化中国的城市化战略。尤
其是在土地供应方面，城市的住宅、商业和公共建设用地的供给数量应该和就业、户籍人口或者参加社保人数等指标紧密
挂钩。

Specifically, in response to various types of downward pressure on the economy, in terms of finance, we should increase spending
and use real money to subsidize households and small, medium and micro enterprises severely affected by the epidemic.

Speed up the start and construction of infrastructure projects with reasonable returns. China is still a middle-income country, and
urbanization still has a long way to go. There is no distinction between old and new infrastructure, and the key is the return. Therefore,
priority should be given to infrastructure in central cities and urban agglomerations where population flows. For small and medium-
sized cities in areas with population outflows, while emphasizing government cost savings, they should moderately increase subsidies
for government daily necessary expenditures and local people's livelihood and should not build infrastructure that has no actual value
and purpose.

In terms of stabilizing foreign trade, the renminbi has appreciated a lot in the past two years, so there is some room for relaxation.
We believe that the central bank can moderately increase foreign exchange purchases, which can not only restrain the appreciation
of the renminbi, but also supplement the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves to stabilize foreign investors’ confidence in China’s
overseas debt, and even release the liquidity of the renminbi and save room for RRR cuts.

In terms of real estate, given the current economic downturn risk, instead of passively relaxing or even stimulating the real estate
industry again in the end, it is better to adhere to the basic principle of housing and not speculating, and use the idea of supply-side
reform, both market and public security, to allow real estate Industry soft landing. In the short term, the central bank and other
financial regulators should pay close attention to the financial risks brought about by the downturn in the real estate industry, and
not allow panic to spread excessively. It is a top priority to introduce policies to encourage banks to maintain a reasonable growth of
development loans and avoid disorderly withdrawal of loans. In the long run, China's urbanization strategy should be optimized with
the idea of promoting the reform of the factor market and improving real estate regulation as an opportunity. Especially in terms of
land supply, the supply of urban residential, commercial and public construction land should be closely linked to indicators such as
employment, registered population or the number of people participating in social security.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
Page 19 第19页