Page 24 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

金融论坛 Forum2022 加中金融

Bruce: You know, Didi delisted from the NYSC recently, for a long time, the NYSE is where a lot of Chinese firms were rushing to IPO.
Now, it looks like there are some new rules in place, I think some new rules to kind of discourage those listings. When I start with you,
Steve, on that topic. What are your observations when you look at Chinese companies like delisting? And what are you going to
forecast for Chinese firms going public?

Bruce：你知道，滴滴最近从纽约证券交易所退市了，很长一段时间以来，纽约证券交易所是很多中国公司争相上市的地
方。现在，似乎有一些新规定出台了，我认为他们实施了一些新规定来为这些上市公司设置阻力。这个话题从你开始，
Steve，当你看到像滴滴这样的中国公司退市时，你有什么观察? 你对中国公司上市有什么预测?

Steve: I think the VIE structure was an end run around Chinese regulation. And basically, what we saw earlier in the year with how the
government reacted to Jack Ma Ant financial and in consequence, Alibaba was a warning sign. And I think that you're not going to see
that this VIE structure is not long for the world. DiDi was, I think the straw that broke the camel's back as far as Beijing was concerned,
because they were pretty much warn not to do it. And I think if there's a lesson in there for non-Chinese investors, that is, Beijing is
going to do what Beijing feels is right for them. And I'm not going to put a value judgment on that.

Steve: 我认为，VIE 结构是为了绕过中国的监管。基本上, 我们看到今年年初, 政府如何对马云，蚂蚁金服的后果, 阿里
巴巴是一个警告信号。我认为这种 VIE 结构并不会长久。滴滴就是这样的结构，我认为对北京来说这是压垮骆驼的最后一
根稻草，已经警告不要这么做。我认为，如果这对非中国投资者有什么启示的话，那就是北京将会做北京认为对他们来说
是正确的事情。我不打算对其进行价值判断。
Bruce: Ray Dalio said recently, not exactly those words, but I think that's the message he was trying to convey.

Bruce:好像桥水基金达里奥最近也同样表达了这个意思。

Steve: I'm not optimistic about seeing a lot more Chinese listings, in the short term until, or unless that there's a framework that works
for Beijing, and the US, not to mention that there are differences in accounting standards. There's a litany of differences and I think it
kind of just all got papered, over out of some clever structure. There was a bunch of willing buyers, and I think DiDi is the first of
several because I think there will be migration away from this VIE structure ideally. Hopefully some of the companies will find it
behooves them to use something more akin to GAAP that they could get listed in the US or in other global exchanges. But overall I'm
not optimistic about this structure.

Steve: 在短期内，我不看好会有更多中国公司上市，除非有一个对中国和美国都适用的框架, 更不用说会计准则的差异
了, 有很多不同之处，我认为这些都被一些巧妙的结构掩盖了。有一群愿意购买的人，我认为滴滴是其中的第一个，因为
我认为理想情况下会有从 VIE 中派生出来的结构。希望一些公司会发现它们有必要使用更类似于公认会计准则的方法——
它们可以在美国或其它全球交易所上市。但总的来说，我对这种结构并不乐观。
Bruce: Dawn is as someone who's come from the world of institutional investors. Do you have some thoughts around what you're
seeing other big institutional investors looking to do in 2022, asset allocation wise, whether it's real estate, cryptocurrencies and we
talked about the ESG implementation. A lot of news here in the US about increased allocations to private equity and private credit on
behalf of institutions. Maybe there's some differences up in Canada, can you give us some thoughts around that topic?

Bruce: Daw 你是一个来自机构投资界的。你对其他大型机构投资者在 2022 年的资产配置有什么想法吗? 无论是房地产、
加密货币，我们也谈到了 ESG 的实施。美国有很多是关于代表机构增加对私人股本和私人信贷的配置。也许加拿大不同，
你能给我们一些想法吗?

Dawn: I think 2022 will be a continuation of 2021, I don't see that people will allocate differently. What I've seen in the market is
definitely everybody is saying that highest ever level of dry powder in private credit. And that's a complete reaction to these rising
interest rates, because people have seen that private credit, the character is short duration and high credit spread. So short duration
can fight off any interest rates or risk and high credit spreads can cover you, if interest rate does go up a bit, you have a buffer of 4 or
5% to protect you. And then PE is the dry powder have been high for many years, that's not something new. And the reason is that
real borrowing rate inactive just encouraged people to invest in risky asset, like private equity, that may change when we get to an
area, I don't know whether it will be 2022 or 23, when borrowing start become more expensive. People’s mind may change, I think I
see continued interest and you realize its because of the perception of those assets tend to be more inflation hedging crypto currency.
In the institutional sector, it is getting traction. But what I have seen is it's some family offices tend to have bigger influence on
allocation. Those are the one would put money in some very large organization. To them, they only need to allocate a tiny, non
meaningful amount. So medium sized, I think it will still take a bit of more time for institutional investors to get into this space. ESG，
I don't see ESG as a separate category of investing, I think, yes, it is more of a integration into your whole investment process.
Dawn:我认为 2022 年将是 2021 年的延续，我不认为人们会有不同的分配。我在市场上看到每个人都在说私人市场的“备
用金”达到了有史以来的最高水平。这是对利率上升的完全反应，因为人们已经看到私人信贷是短期信用利差高。短期存
续期可以抵御任何利率风险，如果利率上升，你有 4 - 5%的缓冲来保护你。作为备用金 PE 多年来一直很高，这不是什么
新鲜事。原因是实际借款利率不高鼓励人们投资风险资产，比如私募股权，我不知 2022 年还是 23 年可能发生改变，那时
借款开始变得更加昂贵。人们的想法可能会改变，我看到持续的利率趋势，你意识到这是因为这些资产往往是通胀对冲加
密货币的看法。在机构领域，它正在获得牵引力。但我所看到的是，一些家族办公室往往对资产配置有更大的影响力。他
们会投资一些非常大的组织。对他们来说只需要分配一个很小的没有意义的数量。我认为机构投资者还需要一段时间才能
投资进入这个中等规模公司领域。我不认为 ESG 是一个独立的投资类别，我认为它更像是你整个投资过程的一个整合。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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